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| Title: | 台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008
The changing process of Taiwan`s party system:1986-2008 |
| Authors: | 莊天憐
Chuang, Tien Lien |
| Contributors: | 劉義周
Liu, I Chou
莊天憐
Chuang, Tien Lien |
| Keywords: | 政黨體系
政黨體系變遷
社會分歧
政治菁英
選舉制度
party system
the change of party system
social cleavage
political elites
electoral system |
| Date: | 2010 |
| Issue Date: | 2011-10-05 14:49:20 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文討論焦點在於台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素，以及台灣政黨體系未來的可能走向。分別使用社會分歧理論、政治菁英理論以及制度論來解釋台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，並由各政黨在選舉結果的消長與選民政黨認同的變化兩個指標來觀察我國政黨體系的變遷。試圖建構一個通用的模式來解釋我國政黨體系發展的過程，以預期台灣政黨體系發展的未來走向。
經過全面觀察各政黨選舉結果的消長，以及選民政黨認同的變動情形之後，本文發現台灣政黨體系的變遷，主要發生在四個重要的時間點，第一個時間點是1986年民進黨的成立，第二個時間點是1993年新黨的成立，第三個時間點是2000年親民黨的成立與2001年台聯的成立，第四個時間點則是立委選制改變後的2008年立委選舉。
在變動的因素方面，雖然每一個變遷的時間點都有新政黨的出現，但是民進黨的出現是整個憲政環境由威權時期轉成民主化的結果，而新黨、親民黨與台聯則都是政治菁英之間的分裂。2008年主要是選舉制度的影響，不但新成立的政黨無法生存，連原有的小黨也都消失無蹤。
在穩定不變的因素方面，在台灣的政黨體系整個變遷的過程裡面，藍綠的區分一直都存在著。在藍綠對抗的主軸之下，台灣的政黨體系受到省籍、統獨立場以及國家認同等因素混合在內的分歧結構的長期影響，泛綠基本上掌握三成左右的基本盤，泛藍則是有四成出頭的支持度，中間還有二成多搖擺不定的部分，這個部分就是藍綠角逐的關鍵所在。這個藍綠對抗中第一個最重要的因素就是混雜了統獨立場、國家認同與省籍在內的社會與議題分歧，其次是政治菁英在歷次選舉過程中不斷地去操作這個分歧結構，藉此找到新政黨在意識型態光譜上的定位點，再加上SNTV選制容許小黨有生存空間，因此台灣的政黨體系隨之產生變遷。最後到了2008年，選舉制度的變革發揮了決定性的影響，使得我國的政黨體系確立為兩黨制。
在未來的發展趨勢上，研究發現，無論就政黨得票率、政黨支持度以及選舉制度的層面來看，國民黨似乎已經逐漸取回過半的優勢，民進黨則回到四成左右的基本盤。在沒有新議題或是新的政治社會分歧足以重新切割現有政黨體系之下，在目前雙首長制的憲政架構以及單一選區兩票制的國會選舉制度之下，我們預期政治菁英們的互動將朝向由國民黨代表泛藍勢力，民進黨代表泛綠勢力的兩黨政治體系逐步鞏固的方向前進。
The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system.
After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008.
About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear.
About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system.
In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP. |
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1993 《國民黨威權統治型態的轉型(一九八六~一九九二)》，國立政治大學政治學研究所碩士論文。
張君勱
1971 《中華民國民主憲法十講》，台北：台灣商務。
張佑宗、劉嘉如
2005 〈政黨的組合、解組與重構；台灣1996至2004年三屆總統選舉社會基礎的變遷〉，「台灣選舉與民主化」(2004總統大選)國際學術研會，5月21-22日。
張茂桂
1993 〈省籍問題與民族主義〉，收錄於張茂桂主編《族群關係與國家認同》，台北，業強出版社，頁233-278。
黃秀端
1994 〈經濟投票與選民投票抉擇〉，《東吳政治學報》，第三期：97-123。
黃俊達
2001 《台灣新生政黨的發展與策略：以親民黨為例》，私立東海大學政治學系碩士論文。
黃德福
1992 《民主進步黨與台灣地區政治民主化》，台北：時英出版社。
1994a 〈政黨競爭與政治民主化：台灣地區政黨體系的新挑戰〉，《選舉研究》，第一卷第二期，頁199-220。
1994b 〈選舉制度與政黨政治：台灣地區解嚴後選舉競爭的觀察〉，《理論與政策》，第七卷第四期，頁3-21。
2000 〈少數政府與責任政治：台灣『半總統制』之下的政黨競爭〉，《問題與研究》，第三十九卷第十二期，頁1-24。
黃德福、張佑宗
1994 〈邁向三黨競爭體系？—民主鞏固與台灣地區政黨政治的變遷〉，《政治學報》，第二十三期，頁197-225。
葛永光
2000 《政黨政治與民主發展》， 台北：空中大學。
2002 〈從北高兩市選舉看政黨力量消長〉，《國政研究報告》。
隋杜卿
2001 《中華民國的憲政工程：以雙首長制為中心的探討》，臺北：韋伯文化。
2002 〈我國現行中央政府體制的定位、爭議與前瞻〉，《國家政策論壇》，第二卷第二期。
游盈隆
1993 「政黨形象、意識型態與台灣選舉變遷」，中央研究院民族學研究所行為研究組「民主化與政黨競爭：何以國民黨繼續執政？」學術研討會宣讀論文，6月11日。
游清鑫
1995 〈台灣政黨競爭及體系之變遷〉，《政治學報》，第二十五期，頁181-206。
2002 〈政黨認同與政黨形象：面訪與焦點團體訪談的結合〉，《選舉研究》，第九卷第二期，頁85-116。
游清鑫、林瓊珠
2000 〈政黨重組？總體層次與個體層次的觀察〉，發表於「2000年選舉研究學術研討會」，政大選舉研究中心主辦，台北。
游清鑫、蕭怡靖
2003 〈台灣民眾政黨認同的持續與變遷〉，發表於2003年台灣政治學會年會暨「世局變動中的台灣政治」學術研討會，台灣政治學會主辦，台北。
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1987 《從政治發展看台灣政黨體系》， 台北：洞察。
1994 《台灣政黨政治》，台北：風雲論壇。
2005 《台灣政黨論》，台北：米羅文化。
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2002 《解嚴後台灣政黨的分合與競爭》，私立東吳大學政治學系碩士論文。
鄒景雯
2001 《李登輝執政告白實錄》，台北：時報出版。
楊泰順
2001 〈政黨重組與當前政治生態〉，蘇永欽主編，《政黨重組：台灣民主政治的再出發？》，頁43-58。
楊鈞池
2001 〈政黨重組的日本經驗〉，蘇永欽主編，《政黨重組：台灣民主政治的再出發？》，頁109-126。
楊嘉容
2002 〈台灣選民政黨認同重組的初步探索：從國民黨的崩解出發〉，發表於2002年台灣政治學會年會暨「全球化與台灣政治」學術研討會，台灣政治學會主辦，台北。
新台灣研究文教基金會
1999 《沒有黨名的黨：美麗島政團的發展》，台北：時報文化。
鄧宇敦
2001 《台灣政黨選舉結盟之探究—以國、親、新三黨為例》，國立成功大學政治經濟研究所碩士論文。
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1987 「選民的政黨偏好」，雷飛龍主持「轉型期社會中的投票行為：台灣地區選民的科際整合研究(II)」研究計畫成果報告，頁113-153，台北：政治大學選舉研究中心，行政院國家科學委員會專題計畫成果報告，計畫編號：NSC79-0301-H-004-12。
1994 〈台灣選民政黨形象的世代差異〉，《選舉研究》，第一卷第一期，頁53-74。
1995 〈台灣的新政黨體系〉，《問題與研究》，第十三卷第十期，頁1-10。
1995 〈台灣民眾的中國觀〉，「第二屆台灣政治學會年會」，12月23-24日
1997 〈統獨態度的世代差異〉，「兩岸關係問題民意調查學術研討會」論文集，國立政治大學選舉研究中心與行政院大陸委員會舉辦，1997年5月17-18日。
2003 〈民眾的「台灣人/中國人認同」發展趨勢〉，發表於2003年台灣政治學會年會暨「世局變動中的台灣政治」學術研討會，台灣政治學會主辦，台北。
蔡佳泓
2007 〈政黨形象的測量尺度初探〉，《政治學報》，第四十三期，頁101-121。
蔡孟熹
1997 《台灣民眾族群認同、統獨立場與政黨偏好變遷之研究—1991~1996年之分析》，國立政治大學政治學系碩士論文。
蔡學儀
2002 〈國會改造之選舉制度方案比較〉，《選舉研究》，第九卷第二期，頁117-150。
2003 《解析單一選區兩票制》，台北：五南。
歐陽晟
1994 《台灣民主轉型政黨競爭型態社會基礎(1986-1992)》，國立台灣大學政治學系碩士論文。
鄭盛隆
2003 《台灣的階級投票研究: 1992 ~ 2001》，國立政治大學政治學系碩士論文。
薛永華
2003 《新黨的發展與衰退—歷史研究途徑的分析》，私立文化大學政治學研究所碩士論文。
謝侑道
1993 〈第五屆立法委員選舉台灣團結聯盟競選策略之研究〉，《中州學報》，第十七期，頁365-385。
謝相慶
1999 〈日本眾議院議員選舉制度及其政治效應—以1996年選舉為例〉，《選舉研究》，第六卷第二期，頁45-85。
2000 〈我國立法委員選舉制度及其選舉結果的影響〉，林繼文主編，《政治制度》，台北：中研院社科所。
2002 〈淺談立法委員選舉制度改革--單一選區兩票制〉，《國家政策研究基金會國政研究報告》，參閱網址：http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/IA/091/IA-R-091-029.htm。
謝復生
1992 《政黨比例代表制》，台北：理論與政策雜誌社。
謝復生、牛銘實、林慧萍
1995 〈民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析〉，，《選舉研究》，第二卷第一期，頁77-92。
蘇永欽主編
2001 《政黨重組：台灣民主政治的再出發？》，台北：新台灣人基金會。
龔意琇
2002 「單一選區兩票制：並立制與聯立制（補償制）之分析」，《國家政策研究基金會國政分析》，參閱網址：http://www.npf.org.tw/post/3/2014。
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| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
政治研究所
902525013
99 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902525013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [政治學系] 學位論文
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