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| 题名: | 財政赤字會造成通貨膨脹嗎？動態追蹤資料的分量迴歸分析
Is fiscal deficit inflationary? A dynamic panel quantile analysis |
| 作者: | 朱浩榜
Chu, Hao Pang |
| 贡献者: | 林馨怡
朱浩榜
Chu, Hao Pang |
| 关键词: | 財政赤字
通貨膨脹
分量迴歸
物價穩定
動態追蹤資料
Fiscal deficit
Inflation
Quantile regression
Price stabilization
Dynamic panel data |
| 日期: | 2009 |
| 上传时间: | 2011-10-11 17:02:44 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 經濟理論認為，長期持續的財政赤字將會因貨幣融通而造成通貨膨脹，而且通膨越高的經濟體越容易受到赤字的影響。本文依照Catao and Terrones (2005)的理論模型，以狹義貨幣衡量財政赤字的規模，並據此檢驗1960到2006年間91個國家赤字與通貨膨脹的關係。本文使用Lin (2010)的分量迴歸方法，藉以估計在不同通膨水準下赤字的影響，並且允許兩者之間的動態調整。實證結果發現：當通膨越高，赤字造成的影響將越嚴重；若通膨在低水準，赤字則影響很弱、甚至不會造成任何影響。因此，當通膨越高的時候，維持財政紀律將越能有效達成物價穩定。這層赤字與通膨間關係不會因為考量了其他變數而有所改變。此外，赤字通常在開發中國家影響較強，尤其是在高通膨的時候。最後，在1990到2006年間，卻沒有發現赤字具有任何的通膨效果。
In economic theory, sustained fiscal deficits might cause inflation by means of money creation, and the economy in a higher inflation level would be more strongly impacted by an increase in deficits. Following the theoretical model of Cat\\~{a}o and Terrones (2005), I scaled fiscal deficits by narrow money stock and examined the deficit-inflation relationship in 91 countries from 1960 to 2006. A dynamic panel quantile regression of Lin (2010) was employed, which can estimate the impact of fiscal deficits at various inflation levels and allows for a dynamic adjustment. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits will be more serious as inflation rises, and weakly or not related to inflation if it is at a low level. Therefore, fiscal consolidation would be more effective in price stabilization the higher the inflation. Moreover, the results remain robust while taking other possibly inflation-related factors into consideration. Furthermore, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation is generally greater in developing countries, particularly when inflation is at a high level. Finally, the inflationary effect of deficits is not detected over 1990--2006. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
97258031
98 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097258031 |
| 数据类型: | thesis |
| 显示于类别: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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