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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/52278


    Title: 由經濟學的觀點論打假球現象 – 以中華職棒為例
    Other Titles: Preventing Game Fixing: the Case of Taiwan`S Professional Baseball
    Authors: 莊奕琦
    Contributors: 行政院國家科學委員會
    國立政治大學經濟學系
    Keywords: 打假球;賭盤讓分;職棒聯盟
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-11-28 15:52:14 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 運動產業的形成與發展是高度開發社會與經濟繁榮國家必然的現象與產物，在歐、美以及日本等經濟高度發展的國家，運動產業是一個不容小覷的市場，其對國家經濟的發展與提昇，提供了相當程度的貢獻。我國的棒球發展，曾經有過一段輝煌的歷史，但因為職棒簽賭打假球案的發生，使得社會上對棒球運動逐漸失去信心。棒球為台灣的國球，為了延續此優良的傳統，我們有必要分析了解造成中華職棒打假球的影響因素，如何有效識別及時偵辦可能存在打假球現象，並制訂合理的制度與遊戲規則，讓台灣的棒球可以繼續傳承下去。本研究擬透過計量模型分析中華職棒打假球的影響因素，我們認為無論是哪一種類型的打假球方式，都與賭盤讓分大小有顯著的關係。第一種方式當讓分愈大時，則強隊較有空間選擇贏得比賽但以打假球方式輸掉賭局(但因壓輸而贏得賭盤)，即是故意放水控制勝分小於讓分；相反地，第二種方式若讓分愈小時，則強隊會選擇爆冷門打假球輸給弱隊的模式，同時輸掉賭局(但因壓輸而贏得賭盤)。這兩種情況多可能產生打假球現象。本研究採用中華職棒20年資料估計證實此兩種打假球現象。依據我們的實證模式可偵測打假球的場次。不但提供了一個思考打假球的動機與方式，並發現一識別打假球的機制做為檢察機關或中華職棒聯盟偵測依據，希望能有效抑止打假球事件的再次發生。
    The development of Sports Industry has become an important activity in most of developed countries like the US and Japan, and it has also contributed to the growth of a country＇s service industry. In Taiwan, Baseball game is the most popular sport since 1960s and it had endured a glory history. However, the incidence of recent game fixing in the professional baseball teams has struck the society and threaten the future development of baseball. In order to prevent repeated game fixings and regain people＇s enthusiasm and confidence in baseball activity, it is critical at the moment to understand the cause of baseball game fixing and find ways to detect and deter repeated game fixing for the sustainable development of baseball games. This research project intends to use data from the Chung-Hwa Professional Baseball League and construct an empirical model to identify the cause of baseball game fixing and under what condition that game fixing is suspected. We consider that game fixing has to do with gambling and point shaving and two types of game fixing are analyzed. Our estimation results will thus enable us to find effective ways to detect game fixing and suggest polices to prevent repeated game fixing.
    Relation: 應用研究
    學術補助
    研究期間:10008~ 10107
    研究經費:386仟元
    Source URI: http://grbsearch.stpi.narl.org.tw/GRB/result.jsp?id=1929843&plan_no=NSC100-2410-H004-074&plan_year=100&projkey=PF10006-0847&target=plan&highStr=*&check=0&pnchDesc=%E7%94%B1%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E5%AD%B8%E7%9A%84%E8%A7%80%E9%BB%9E%E8%AB%96%E6%89%93%E5%81%87%E7%90%83%E7%8F%BE%E8%B1%A1+%E2%80%93+%E4%BB%A5%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E8%81%B7%E6%A3%92%E7%82%BA%E4%BE%8B
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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