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    Title: 亞洲國家金融海嘯前後股票債券報酬率動態相關性分析-應用AG-DCC GARCH模型
    Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation of Asia stock and bond returns
    Authors: 彭筠珈
    Peng, Yun Chia
    Contributors: 林修葳
    彭筠珈
    Peng, Yun Chia
    Keywords: 不對稱動態相關係數模型
    flight-to-quality
    MSCI指數
    J.P. Morgan債券指數
    金融海嘯
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2012-04-12 13:55:31 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文主要針對金融海嘯前後,亞洲國家資本市場報酬動態相關性的變化進行研究,過去對國際資本市場變化研究,著重於股票市場的關係且多假設相關係數為固定。
    本研究應用Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard(2006)提出的AG-DCC GARCH模型(Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH),探討亞洲國家股票與債券市場的動態相關性變化。除了股票市場間報酬相關性的變化之外,同時考量危機發生時可能有flight-to-quality效果,而將台灣、韓國日本之債券市場進行研究,並將資本市場面對正面與負面衝擊時,所可能產生之不同反應納入評估,並採用國際投資者常作為投資參考的MSCI指數與J.P.Morgan指數作為研究資料來源。
    研究發現台灣、中國、韓國及日本的股票指數與台灣、韓國及日本的債券市場的相關係數會隨時間變動而變動,並進一步藉由AG-DCC GARCH發現各指數在金融海嘯前後的相關係數趨勢且市場間在金融海嘯後動態相關性有顯著的差異。
    投資者進行國際投資組合配置或者投資標的選擇,應考量市場間的動態相關性改變所帶來的影響,並配合本身風險傾向找出最適當的避險方式,避免因忽略市場訊息可能產生的投資風險。對政府而言,制訂政策同時尚需考量國際資本移動產生的衝擊,以及其對政策實際執行的效果影響,進而制訂有效的政策。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    97351009
    100
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0973510091
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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