|Abstract: ||本計畫以1998年選區重劃後的台北縣的立委選舉為研究對象,探討在選區重劃之後對候選人以及政黨的政治影響。第一個研究重點顯示將候選人的在選區未重劃之前的得票分布歸類之後,可以分成如選票在全選區(平均)分散者與選票集中在某些特定地區者兩種類型的候選人,而選區的重劃對第一類型的候選人選舉的成敗影響要大於第二類型的候選人。 第二個重點是針對現任者與挑戰者的比較研究,由於相關的文獻多數指出選區重劃對現任者競選連任有相當大的優勢。研究結果顯示現任者優勢在選區重新劃分之後仍然相當普遍,在競選連任的12名候選人中,有10人獲得連任。但由於本次選區重劃不僅是選區疆界的重新調整,更是選區代表應選名額的重新訂定,將原有的應選民額顯著的增加,這項增加同時提供連任者與新的挑戰者有更多的機會贏得選舉。 第三個研究重點是針對政黨在選區重劃後的得票與席次轉化的比例性研究,結果顯示較大的兩個政黨,國民黨與民進黨,其整體席次率仍高於得票率,其中國民黨乃是延續選區未為重劃以前及存在的優勢,而民進黨則由選區重劃以前的劣勢改變成優勢。 最後,透過觀察與訪談之後,顯示在選區重劃後,除了競選活動的地理範圍較為縮小之外,其餘有關候選人之間選舉競爭的型態與競選組織架構的運作沒有明顯的改變。|
The purpose of this study is to explore the political impact of redistricting in the 1998 election for legislator in Taipei County. The study first classifies two types of candidates before redistricting: one is the candidate whose popular support is rather evenly distributed across the county and the other is concentrated on some specific areas. It shows that the former encounter more difficulties than the second type due to the candidate's inability to choose a new district where his (or her) stronghold exists. Second, the effects of incumbency still prevail after redistricting. Ten of twelve incumbent candidates win re-election. However, this high incumbent advantage was accompanied with high electability of challengers due to the large increase reappointment. Nonetheless, the electability among incumbents and challengers varies across districts. Third, it continues to present an overall degree of disproportionality between seats and votes received by larger political parties after redistricting. In particular, the KMT continues enjoying this disproportionality while the DPP enjoys a moderate advantage after redistricting. Lastly, campaign landscape after redistricting reveals no significant changes. The shrink of campaign areas pushes political parties to nominate its candidates who has stronger popular support in certain areas in the new district. However, redistricting does not affect candidates' campaign strategies style and old-fashioned campaign continues.