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    Title: Friedman法則最適性的三個議題
    Three Essays on the Optimality of the Friedman Rule
    Authors: 廖志興
    Liao, Chih Hsing
    Contributors: 賴景昌
    Lai, Ching Chong
    廖志興
    Liao, Chih Hsing
    Keywords: 貨幣政策
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2012-10-30 11:31:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Friedman法則已經是貨幣經濟學中一個基礎且重要的議題。職是之故,本論文使用貨幣內生成長理論來分析不完全競爭市場、生產外部性、廠商的獨佔力與交易性的摩擦如何影響貨幣政策的成長與福利效果。論文的第二章,我們建立一個具有不完全競爭市場與生產外部性特質的貨幣內生成長模型,並且貨幣當局採取釘住通貨膨脹率的方式來當作貨幣政策的法則。基於這樣的設定,我們不但可以探討貨幣當局是否可以利用釘住通貨膨脹率的方式來影響均衡成長率與就業,更能分析貨幣當局如何從福利極大的觀點來設定最適的通貨膨脹率。
    第三章架構一個同時具有R&D與資本累積兩種經濟成長動能的貨幣內生成長模型,並且發現擴張性的貨幣政策導致R&D與資本累積的減少,進而傷害了經濟成長與社會福利。除此之外,透過R&D的管道,較高的獨佔力將增強貨幣政策的成長與福利效果。若透過資本累積的管道,較高的獨佔力將弱化貨幣政策的成長與福利效果。據此,獨佔力是否增強或弱化通貨膨脹的福利成本乃是倚靠兩種成長引擎的相對重要性。在第三章,我們也使用美國與歐元區的資料來量化評估與比較這二個經濟體的通貨膨脹的福利成本,並且發現美國與歐元區經濟體系的R&D管道的影響力高於資本累積管道。
    第四章乃利用一個以搜尋為基礎的貨幣成長模型來分析通貨膨脹的成長與福利效果。我們運用資本外部性的特質來驅動經濟的持續成長,並比較兩部門的搜尋模型與既有的交易付現(cash-in-advance)成長模型的通貨膨脹效果後,我們發現這二種模型對通貨膨脹效果有二個重要的差異性。第一,勞動內生在交易付現模型的通貨膨脹成長效果中扮了演一個重要的角色。然而,在搜尋模型之中,分權市場之消費效果才是一個影響通貨膨脹成長效果的重要管道。第二,我們使用量化分析來評估通貨膨脹的福利成本,並且發現貨幣供給長率降低至Friedman法則成立時,搜尋模型相對於交易付現模型有較高的福利利得。然而,貨幣供給成長率降低至零通貨膨脹率(zero inflation)時,交易付現模型卻有較高的福利利得。為何二種模型對通貨膨脹的福利成本呈現相對性的結果?原因來自於內生成長的特質在搜尋模型的架構下產生了福利水準與通貨膨脹率的關係呈現非線性狀態。
    The Friedman rule has been a fundamental issue in monetary economics. This dissertation uses monetary endogenous growth theories to analyze how market imperfections, production externalities, the market power of firms, and trading frictions influence the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy. In chapter two, we develop a monetary endogenous growth model with market imperfections and production externalities. The notable feature of the model is that the monetary authority implements inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule. Based on the model, this chapter examines not only whether the anchor of the inflation rate set by the monetary authority governs the balanced growth rate and the level of employment, but also how the monetary authority sets its optimal anchor of the inflation rate from the viewpoint of welfare maximization.
    In chapter three we develop a monetary endogenous-growth model in which R&D and capital accumulation are both engines of long-run economic growth. We find that monetary expansion hurts economic growth and social welfare by reducing R&D and capital accumulation. Furthermore, a larger market power of firms strengthens these growth and welfare effects of monetary policy through the R&D channel but weakens these effects through the capital-accumulation channel. Therefore, whether the market power of firms amplifies or mitigates the welfare cost of inflation depends on the relative importance of the two growth engines. Finally, we calibrate the model using data in the United States and the Euro Area to quantitatively evaluate and compare the welfare cost of inflation in these two economies and find that the R&D channel dominates in both economies.
    In chapter four, we develop a search-based monetary growth model to analyze the growth and welfare effects of inflation. We introduce endogenous growth via a capital externality into a two-sector search model and compare the effects of inflation to those from a standard cash-in-advance (CIA) growth model. We find two important differences between the two approaches. First, while the growth effect of inflation operates solely through endogenous labor supply in the CIA model, the growth effect of inflation operates through an additional consumption effect in the decentralized market in the search model. Second, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare cost of inflation and find that the search model exhibits a larger (smaller) welfare gain than the CIA model when we decrease the growth rate of money supply to achieve the Friedman rule (zero inflation). These contrasting results arise because welfare is non-linear in inflation in the search model due to endogenous growth whereas it is linear in the CIA model.
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    Chapter Two
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    Golinelli, R., and Rovelli, R., 2005. Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries. Journal of Banking and Finance 29, 183-201.
    Gomme, P., 1993. Money and growth revisited: Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 51-77.
    Guidotti, P., and Végh, C., 1993. The optimal inflation tax when money reduces transactions costs: A reconsideration. Journal of Monetary Economics 31, 189-205.
    Guo, J., and Lansing, K., 1998. Indeterminacy and stabilization policy. Journal of Economic Theory 82, 481-490.
    Guo, J., and Lansing, K., 1999. Optimal taxation of capital income with imperfectly competitive product markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 23, 967-995.
    Gylfason, T., and Herbertsson, T., 2001. Does inflation matter for growth? Japan and the World Economy 13, 405-428.
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    Ireland, P., 2003. Implementing the Friedman rule. Review of Economic Dynamics 6, 120-134.
    Itaya, J., and Mino, K., 2003. Inflation, transaction costs and indeterminacy in monetary economics with endogenous growth. Economica 70, 451-470.
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    Chapter Three
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    Itaya, J., and Mino, K., 2003. Inflation, transaction costs and indeterminacy in monetary economies with endogenous growth. Economica, 70, 451-470.
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    Marquis, M., and Reffett, K., 1994. New technology spillovers into the payment system. Economic Journal, 104, 1123-1138.
    Mino, K., 1997. Long-run effects of monetary expansion in a two-sector model of endogenous growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 19, 635-655.
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    Zhang, J., 1996. A simple pecuniary model of money and growth with transactions cost. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18, 127-137.

    Chapter Four
    Aruoba, S., Waller, C., and Wright, R., 2011. Money and capital. Journal of Monetary Economics 58, 98-116.
    Berentsen, A., Camera, G., and Waller, C., 2007. Money, credit and banking. Journal of Economic Theory 135, 171-195.
    Chiu, J., Meh, C., and Wright, R., 2011. Innovation and growth with financial, and other, frictions. NBER Working Papers No. 17512.
    Chiu, J., and Molico, M., 2010. Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 57, 428-438.
    Chu, A., and Lai, C.-C., 2012. Money and the welfare cost of inflation in an R&D growth model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
    Craig, B., and Rocheteau, G., 2008. Inflation and welfare: A search approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40, 89-119.
    Dotsey, M., and Ireland, P., 1996. The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium. Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 29-47.
    Gomme, P., 1993. Money and growth revisited: Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Monetary Economics,32, 51-77.
    Itaya, J., and Mino, K., 2003. Inflation, transaction costs and indeterminacy in monetary economies with endogenous growth. Economica 70, 451-470.
    Itaya, J., and Mino, K., 2007. Technology, preference structure, and the growth effect of money supply. Macroeconomic Dynamics 11, 589-612.
    Lagos, R., and Rocheteau, G., 2008. Money and capital as competing media of exchange. Journal of Economic Theory 142, 247-258.
    Lagos, R., and Wright, R., 2005. A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis. Journal of Political Economy 113, 463-484.
    Liu, L., Wang, L., and Wright, R., 2011. On the 'hot potato effect' of inflation: Intensive versus extensive margins. Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, 191-216.
    Lucas, R., 2000. Inflation and welfare. Econometrica 68, 247-274.
    Marquis, M., and Reffett, K., 1994. New technology spillovers into the payment system. Economic Journal 104, 1123-1138.
    Menner, M., 2006. A search-theoretic monetary business cycle with capital formation. Contributions to Macroeconomics 6, Article 11.
    Mino, K., 1997. Long-run effects of monetary expansion in a two-sector model of endogenous growth. Journal of Macroeconomics 19, 635-655.
    Rocheteau, G., and Wright, R., 2005. Money in search equilibrium, in competitive equilibrium, and in competitive search equilibrium. Econometrica 73, 175-202.
    Romer, P., 1986. Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy 94, 1002-1037.
    Shi, S., 1999. Search, inflation and capital accumulation. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 81-104.
    Waller, C., 2011. Random matching and money in the neoclassical growth model: Some analytical results. Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, 293-312.
    Wang, P., and Yip, C., 1992. Alternative approaches to money and growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 24, 553-62.
    Williamson, S., and Wright, R., 2010. New monetarist economics: Models. In: B. Friedman and M. Woodford (ed.). Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3, 25-96. Elsevier.

    Chapter Five
    Cunha, A., 2008. The optimality of the Friedman rule when some distorting taxes are exogenous. Economic Theory 35, 267-291.
    Friedman, M., 1969. The optimum quantity of money and other essays. London: Macmillan.
    Jones, C., 1999. Growth: With or without scale effects. American Economic Review, 89, 139-144.
    Schmitt-Grohé, S., and Uribe, M., 2004. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under imperfect competition. Journal of Macroeconomics 26, 183-209.
    Shaw, M., Chang, J., and Lai, C., 2006. (Non)optimality of the Friedman rule and optimal taxation in a growing economy with imperfect competition. Economics Letters 90, 412-420.
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