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    Title: 核設施互依性分析要項方法研究
    Other Titles: Development of Research Methods for Interdependency Analysis of Nuclear Energy Facilities
    Authors: 李蔡彥;蕭又新
    Contributors: 國立政治大學資訊科學系
    行政院原子能委員會
    Keywords: 互依性分析;基礎建設分析;系統動力學;代理人模擬
    Interdependency Analysis;Infrastructure Analysis;System Dynamics;Agent-Based Modeling
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2012-11-12 11:05:33 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 由於節點相依性的特點,一般民生重要基礎建設常被視為典型的複雜系統,近年來以資訊科技輔助分析這類重點基礎建設的研究也越來越多。綜觀文獻中所提出之重要基礎建設弱點分析的架構,基本上多包含兩個步驟:(1) 過濾分析重要基礎建設中的弱點 (2) 以電腦模擬方式了解基礎建設之弱點的成因。其中,又以系統動力學及代理人模擬為較為常用的方式。在本計畫中,我們將嘗試以電力供應網路為例,建立基礎建設相依性的模型,藉由拓樸連結與可靠度的網路分析,以系統動力學的模擬及虛擬代理人模擬的方式,進行過濾、實驗、及分析的工作。藉由物件導向建模方式,我們將模擬重要基礎建設的動態行為,並且找出在網路分析中的弱點成因。由於現今電力供應系統與通信資訊系統的關係密切,非常適合當作重要基礎設施的例子。本計畫希望能透過科學計算的技術,建立國家重要基礎建設的分析模型與研究方法,以做為後續研發及重要決策的參考。
    Due to the characteristics of interdependency among facilities, important national infrastructures can be considered as a typical complex adaptive system. In recent years, it is becoming a trend to use the technologies developed in Computer Science to assist the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. Typically, there are two successive stages in the framework of such an approach: a screening analysis for identifying its vulnerability of the critical infrastructure and a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights about the vulnerability. Especially, the approach of system dynamics and agent-based modeling are considered more mature methods for studying this kind of problem. In this project, we will attempt to use the network of electric power supply as an example to build the interdependency model for infrastructure and use network analysis as well as object-oriented modeling to discover the vulnerability embedded in critical infrastructures. In such a system, network analysis is based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency whereas the screening task and object-oriented modeling is to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure. In this project, we hope that by making use of the technologies developed in computational sciences, we can build a good analytical model and a new research method for the study of national infrastructure. And as a result, the conclusions drawn in this study can be used as an important reference for decision making by the government.
    一般民生重要基礎建設常被視為典型的複雜系統,而近年來以資訊科技輔助分析這類重點基礎建設的研究也越來越多。綜觀文獻中所提出之重要基礎建設弱點分析的架構,基本上多包含兩個步驟:(1) 過濾分析重要基礎建設中的弱點 (2) 以電腦模擬方式了解基礎建設之弱點的成因。其中,又以系統動力學及代理人模擬為較為常用的方式。在本計畫中,我們將嘗試以電力供應網路為例,建立基礎建設相依性的模型,藉由拓樸連結與可靠度的網路分析,系統動力學及虛擬代理人模擬的方式,進行過濾、實驗、及分析的工作。目前我們已完成網路的脆弱性分析與網路的可靠性效率之演算法,另外,為瞭解電力網路與小世界網路的差異處,我們也已成功建構BA網路與隨機網路,並將以BA網路與隨機網路作為假想電力網路,模擬當網路受到攻擊時的斷電狀況。再者,我們在Repast模擬器的基礎之上,建立以代理人為基的台灣電網模擬平台,完成初步的電網相依性模型,並進行假想狀況的實驗,以驗證系統的正確性。本計畫希望能透過科學計算的技術,建立國家重要基礎建設的分析模型與研究方法,以做為後續研發及重要決策的參考。
    Important national infrastructures are usually considered as a typical complex adaptive system. In recent years, it is becoming a trend to use the technologies developed in Computer Science to assist the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures. Typical stages in the framework of such an approach include: a screening analysis for identifying its vulnerability of the critical infrastructure and a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights about the vulnerability. In this project, we attempt to use the network of electric power supply as an example to build the interdependency model for infrastructure and use network analysis as well as object-oriented modeling to discover the vulnerability embedded in critical infrastructures. We have derived the algorithm for analyzing vulnerability and reliability of complex network. We have also succeeded in constructing Barabási and Albert (BA) networks and random network as examples of power network to analyze their vulnerability under attacks. In addition, we have adopted the Repast simulation platform to build an agent-based simulation testbed for power network interdependency in Taiwan. Test scenarios and visualization tools have been built to verify the simulation model. In summary, we have built a good analytical model and a new research method for the study of national infrastructure. And as a result, the conclusions drawn in this study can be used as an important reference for decision making by the government.
    Relation: 應用研究
    委託研究
    研究期間:10001~ 10012
    研究經費:810仟元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[資訊科學系] 國科會研究計畫

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