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    题名: 「混合選制」下選民之一致與分裂投票:1996年日本眾議員選舉自民黨選票之分析
    其它题名: Straight-And Split-Ticket Voting in a Mixed-Member Majoritarian System: An Analysis of the 1996 House Election in Japan
    作者: 黃紀;王鼎銘;郭銘峰
    Huang, Chi;Wang, Ding-Ming;Kuo, Ming-Feng
    贡献者: 政大政治系
    关键词: 一致投票;分裂投票;混合選制;單一選區兩票並立制;日本自民黨
    Straight-Ticket Voting;Split-Ticket Voting;Mixed Electoral Systems;Mixed-Member Majoritarian System;the Liberal Democratic Party LDP
    日期: 2008-11
    上传时间: 2013-06-21 10:34:09 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 1990年代以來,世界各民主國家陸續針對選制興起一股改革的風潮,並以整合「單一選區」(SMD)與「比例代表制」(PR)兩者的「混合選制」(mixed or hybrid systems)最受矚目。在這波改革風潮下,日本也在1994年通過了「單一選區兩票並立制」,取代舊有的中選區「單記非讓渡投票制」。新選制的特色之一,是選民在眾院選舉中可投兩票,一票選人、一票選黨。過去的文獻如Kohno(1997)、Reed(1999)等,僅從總體層次資料或制度結構因素,探索日本1996年首度改採兩票並立制下的選民策略性分裂投票現象,分析難免受到侷限;本文則回歸至個體層次的角度,運用日本選舉研究(JES)的1996年選後個體民調資料,希望更深入瞭解是屆選舉中選民針對兩張選票的投票模式,特別是長期獨大的自民黨在兩票並立式結構中,獲得選民一致支持的程度及其背後可能的影響因素。本文之分析,應可對我國第七屆立法委員選舉首度改採「單一選區兩票並立制」的效應,提供一個絕佳之比較案例。
    研究結果顯示,1996年的眾院選舉中,在單一選區選舉支持自民黨候選人者,有高達八成的比例,在政黨比例代表的選票上也一致地支持自民黨。更進一步剖析選民在兩項選票上是否一致支持自民黨的因素,可以發現認同自民黨、政治態度保守者,最有可能採取一致投票的模式;但教育程度較高者,則比較不會拘泥於政黨標籤。此外,本文也發現分裂投票的選民之中,以單一選區票支持自民黨而政黨票投非自民黨者較多,這可能反映了有部分不認同自民黨的選民,在單一選區中採策略投票(strategic voting),把票投給比較有希望當選的大黨(自民黨)候選人,但在政黨票上則採真誠投票(sincere voting),把票投給最喜歡的政黨(非自民黨)。
    The 1990s witnessed an explosion in electoral reforms, especially in adopting the "mixed electoral systems" which combine the features of both single-member districts (SMD) and proportional representation (PR). In January 1994, the Japanese Diet passed the law that replaced the single nontransferable vote (SNTV), in use since 1947, with a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system. Voters cast two votes in this new electoral system: a candidate vote in an SMD, and a party-list vote in the list tier portion of the ballot. The 1996 House election was the first test of the MMM system in Japan. The purpose of this article is to assess the effects of this electoral system change based on the 1996 post-election survey of the Japanese Election Study (JES). We focus particularly on the straight-and split-ticket voting patterns for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and their determinants.
    Our study indicates that straight-ticket rate was pretty high among the LDP supporters. That is, 80.16% of those who voted for an LDP candidate in an SMD also voted for the LDP on a party-list vote. A further analysis reveals that the LDP identifiers and the more conservative were much more likely to cast straight votes for the LDP, but on the other hand voters with college-level or higher education were less likely to do so. We also find that between two types of ticket-splitters, the percentage of voters who voted for an LDP candidate in an SMD and yet for the non-LDP on a party-list ballot was higher than those who voted the other around. This is probably due to the fact that some non-LDP party identifiers voted strategically in SMDs for the largest party's (i.e., the LDP) candidates, on the one hand, and yet voted sincerely for the non-LDP on the party-list ballot.
    關聯: 選舉研究, 15(2), 1-32
    数据类型: article
    显示于类别:[政治學系] 期刊論文

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