Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59520
|
| Title: | 認知能力與認知階層 : 選美賽局的實驗分析
Cognitive Capacity and Cognitive Hierarchy: Experimental Evidence from Keynes`s Beauty Contest |
| Authors: | 杜業榮
Ye-Rong Du |
| Contributors: | 陳樹衡
Shu-Heng Chen
杜業榮
Ye-Rong Du |
| Keywords: | 選美賽局
智力
工作記憶
k層次思考
認知階層
強化學習
信念學習
經驗加權吸引力學習
Beauty contest experiment
Intelligence
Working memory capacity
Level-k reasoning
Cognitive hierarchies
Reinforcement learning
Belief learning
Experience-weighted attraction learning |
| Date: | 2012 |
| Issue Date: | 2013-09-02 17:19:22 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 晚近行為實驗的發展, 特別是在賽局實驗的研究中, 認知所扮演的角色漸受重視。認知階層與認知能力, 是文獻上兩個相關並且廣被討論的概念。 雖然這兩者往往出現在同樣的實驗中, 但仍少有研究正式地探討兩者之間的關係。 在本研究中, 我們透過15至20人為一組的重複選美賽局觀察受試者的認知階層, 並以工作記憶測驗測量其認知能力, 試圖檢驗認知能力對於認知階層的影響。 總的來說, 我們發現認知能力對於認知階層有正向的影響, 即認知能力較高的受試者, 所觀察到的認知階層也較高。 在最初幾個回合中, 認知能力的影響顯著。 接下來的回合中雖然效果漸弱, 但並不會完全消失。 這意謂著認知能力可能進一步影響其學習行為, 因此透過認知階層的馬可夫轉移動態與經驗加權吸引力學習模型, 我們檢驗此一可能性。 證據顯示認知能力不同反映學習行為的差異, 尤其相較於強化學習, 認知能力較高的受試者可能更傾向信念學習。
Recent developments in behavioral experiments, in particular game experiments, have placed human cognition in a pivotal place. Two related ideas are proposed and are popularly used in the literature, namely, cognitive hierarchy and cognitive capacity. While these two often meet in the same set of experiments and observations, few studies have formally addressed their relationship. In this study, based on six series of 15- to 20-person beauty contest experiments and the associated working memory tests, we examine the effect of cognitive capacity on the observed cognitive hierarchy. It is found that cognitive capacity has a positive effect on the observed cognitive hierarchy. This effect is strong in the initial rounds, and may become weaker, but without disappearing, in subsequent rounds, which suggests the possibility that cognitive capacity may further impact learning. We examine this possibility using the Markov transition dynamics of cognitive hierarchy and experience-weighted attraction learning. There is evidence to show that subjects with different cognitive capacities may learn differently, which may cause strong convergence to be difficult to observe. |
| Reference: | Agranovy M, Caplin A, Tergiman C (2011) The process of
choice in guessing games. Mimeo. Caltech.
Arad A, Rubinstein A (2010) Colonel Blotto’s top secret
files: Multi-dimensional iterative reasoning in action.
Working paper.
Branas-Garza P, Garcia-Munoz T, Hernan-Gonzalez R (2012)
Cognitive effort in the beauty contest game. Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization 83(2): 254-260.
Branas-Garza P, Meloso D, Miller L (2012) Interactive and
moral reasoning: A comparative study of response times.
IGIER, Universita Bocconi, Working Paper Series No. 440.
Brock W, Hommes C (1998) Heterogeneous beliefs and routes
to chaos in a simple asset pricing model. Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control 22:1235-1274.
Buhren C, Frank B, Nagel R (2012) A historical note on the
beauty contest. Working paper.
Burnham T C, Cesarini D, Johannesson M, Lichtenstein P, and
Wallace B (2009). Higher cognitive ability is associated
with lower entries in a p-beauty contest. Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization 72(1):171-175.
Camerer C F (1997) Progress in behavioral game theory.
Journal of Economic Perspectives 11:167-188.
Camerer C, Ho T-H (1998) EWA Learning in Games: Probability
Form, Heterogeneity, and Time Variation. Journal of
Mathematical Psychology, 42:305-326.
Camerer C, Ho T-H (1999) Experienced-weighted attraction
learning in normal form games. Econometrica 67(4):827-874.
Camerer C F, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2002) Sophisticated EWA
Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games.
Journal of Economic Theory, 104(1): 137-88.
Camerer C F, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004) A cognitive hierarchy
model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119: 861-
98.
Cantor J, Engle R W (1993) Working-memory capacity as long-
term memory activation: An individual-differences
approach. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning,
Memory, and Cognition 19:1101-1114.
Casari M, Ham J, Kagel J (2007) Selection bias, demographic
effects, and ability effects in common value auction
experiments. American Economic Review 97(4):1278-1304.
Chen S-H (2012) Varieties of agents in agent-based
computational economics: A historical and an
interdisciplinary perspective. Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 36(1):1-25.
Chen S-H, Gostoli U, Tai C-C, Shih K-C (2012) To whom and
where the hill becomes difficult to climb: Effects of
cognitive capacity and personality in experimental DA
markets. Advances in Behavioral Finance and Economics,
forthcoming.
Chong J-K, Camerer C, Ho T-H (2005). Cognitive hierarchy: A
limited thinking theory in games. In: Zwick R and
Rapoport A (eds.) Experimental Business Research, Vol. 3,
203-228. Springer.
Conway A R A, Cowan N, Bunting M F, Therriault D J, Minkoff
S R B (2002) A latent variable analysis of working memory
capacity, short-term memory capacity, processing speed,
and general fluid intelligence. Intelligence 30(2):163-
184.
Coricelli G, Nagel R (2009) Neural correlates of depth of
strategic reasoning in medial prefrontal cortex.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America 106(23):9163-9168.
Costa-Gomes M A, Crawford V P (2006) Cognition and behavior
in two-person guessing games: An experimental study.
American Economic Review 96:1737-1768.
Costa-Gomes M A, Crawford V P, Broseta B (2001) Cognition
and behavior in normal form games: An experimental study.
Econometrica 69:1193-1235.
Cowan N (2008) What are the differences between long-term,
and short-term, and working memory? In: Sossin W S,
Lacaille J-C, Castellucci V F, Belleville S (eds.),
Progress in brain research, Essence of memory, Vol.
169, 323-338. Elsevier.
Daily L Z, Lovett M C, Reder L M (2001) Modeling individual
differences in working memory performance: A source
activation account. Cognitive Sciences 25:315-353.
DellaVigna S (2009) Psychology and economics: Evidence from
the field. Journal of Economic Literature 47:315-72.
Devetag G, Warglien M (2003) Games and phone numbers: Do
short-term memory bounds affect strategic behavior?
Journal of Economic Psychology 24:189-202.
Duffy J, Nagel R (1997) On the robustness of behaviour in
experimental `Beauty Contest` games. The Economic Journal
107(445):1684-1700.
Earl P E (1990) Economics and psychology: A survey. The
Economic Journal 100:718-755.
Eckel C, Grossman P (2008a) Differences in the economic
decisions of men and women: Experimental evidence. In:
Plott C, Smith V. (eds.) Handbook of Experimental
Economics Results, Vol. 1, Chapter 57, 509-519, Elsevier.
Eckel C, Grossman P (2008b) Men, women and risk aversion:
Experimental evidence. In: Plott C, Smith V (eds.),
Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Vol. 1,
Chapter 57, 1061-1073, Elsevier.
Engle R W, Tuholski S W, Laughlin J E, Conway A R A (1999)
Working memory, short-term memory, and general fluid
intelligence: A latent-variable approach. Journal of
Experimental Psychology: General 128:309-331.
Fischbacher U (2007) z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made
economic experiments, Experimental Economics 10(2):171-
178.
Frederick S (2005) Cognitive reflection and decision
making. Journal of Economic Perspectives 19:25-42.
Frey B, Stutzer A (2007) (eds.) Economics and Psychology: A
Promising New Cross-Discipline Field. MIT Press.
Georganas S, Healy P J, Weber, R A (2010) On the
Persistence of Strategic Sophistication. Unpublished Ohio
State working paper.
Gill D, Prowse V (2012) Cognitive ability and learning to
play equilibrium: A level-k analysis. Mimeo.
Goldstein D, Gigerenzer G (2002) Models of ecological
rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological
Review 109:75-90.
Grosskopf B, Nagel R (2008) The two-person beauty contest.
Games and Economic Behavior 62:93-99.
Guth W, Kocher M, Sutter M (2002) Experimental `beauty
contests` with homogeneous and heterogeneous players and
with interior and boundary equilibria. Economics Letters
74:219-228.
Hambrick D Z, Engle R W (2002) Effects of domain knowledge,
working memory capacity, and age on cognitive
performance: An investigation of the knowledge-is-power
hypothesis. Cognitive Psychology 44:339-387.
Herrnstein J R (1970) On the Law of Effect. Journal of
Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 13:342-366.
Ho T, Camerer C, Weigelt K (1998) Iterated dominance and
iterated best response in experimental ``p-beauty
contests``. American Economic Review 88(4):947-969.
Kahneman D (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, New York.
Keynes J M (1936) The General Theory of Employment,
Interest, and Money. London: Macmillan.
Kocher M, Sutter M (2006) Time is money - Time pressure,
incentives, and the quality of decision-making. Journal
of Economic Behavior and Organization 61(3):375-392.
Kovac E, Ortmann A, Vojtek M (2007) Comparing guessing
games with homogeneous and heterogeneous players:
Experimental results and a CH Explanation. Economics
Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Working
Paper.
Kyllonen P C (1996) Is working memory capacity Spearman`s
g? In Dennis I, Tapsfield P (eds.), Human abilities:
Their nature and measurement. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Kyllonen P C, Christal, R E (1990) Reasoning ability is
(little more than) working-memory capacity?! Intelligence
14:389-433.
Lewandowsky, S., Oberauer, K., Yang, L.-X., and Ecker, U.
(2010). A working memory test battery for MATLAB.
Behavioral Research Methods 42(2):571-585.
Luce D (1991) Response Times: Their Role in Inferring
Elementary Mental Organization. Oxford University Press,
1991.
McCain R (2010) Learning Level-k Play in Noncooperative
Games. Working Paper, Drexel University.
http://faculty.lebow.drexel.edu/McCainR/top/eco/wps/Levelk.pdf
Moulin H (1986) Game Theory for Social Sciences. New York:
New York University Press.
Nagel R (1995) Unraveling in guessing games: An
experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313-
1326.
Nagel R (1998) A survey on beauty contest experiments:
Bounded rationality and learning. In: Budescu D, Erev I,
Zwick R (eds.), Games and Human Behavior, Essays in Honor
of Amnon Rapoport. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., New
Jersey.
Nagel R (2008). Experimental beauty contest games: Levels
of reasoning and convergence to equilibrium. In: Plott C
R, Smith V (eds.) Handbook of Experimental Economics
Results, Vol. 1, Chapter 45, 391-410, Elsevier.
Oberauer K, Süß H-M, Schulze R, Wilhelm O, Wittmann W (2000)
Working memory capacity - Facets of a cognitive ability
construct. Personality and Individual Differences 29
(6):1017-1045.
Ohtsubo Y, (2002) Strategy learning in two-person constant-
sum game and theory of mind. Poster session presented at
the 4th annual meeting of the Human Behavior and
Evolution Society of Japan, Hokkaido University, Japan.
Piovesan M, Wengstrom E (2009) Fast or fair? A study of
response times. Economics Letters 105:193-196.
Rubinstein A (2007) Instinctive and cognitive reasoning: A
study of response times. The Economic Journal 117:1243-
1259.
Rydval O, Ortmann A, Ostatnicky M (2009) Three very simple
games and what it takes to solve them. Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization 72(1):589-601.
Schnusenberg, O. and Gallo, A. (2011). On cognitive ability
and learning in a beauty contest. Journal for Economic
Educators 11(1):13-24.
Simon H A (1990) Invariants of human behavior. Annual
Review of Psychology 41:1-19.
Stahl D (1996) Boundedly rational rule learning in a
guessing game. Games and Economic Behavior 16(2):303-330.
Stahl D (1998) Is step-j thinking an arbitrary modeling
restriction or a fact of human nature? Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization 37(1):33-51.
Thaler R H (2000) From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens.
Journal of Economic Perspectives 14(1):133-141.
Thorndike E L (1911) Animal Intelligence. New York:
Macmillan.
Weber R (2003) `Learning` with no feedback in a competitive
guessing game. Games and Economic Behavior 44(1):134-144. |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
94258502
101 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0942585021 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 502101.pdf | 5807Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 720 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
