English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 92604/122928 (75%)
Visitors : 26891685      Online Users : 542
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59808


    Title: 運用土地開發分析法建立地價評估機率模型
    The use of the land development analysis to establish the probability model of premium assessment
    Authors: 林俊豪
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    林俊豪
    Keywords: 不動產估價
    土地開發分析法
    蒙地卡羅
    valuation of real estate
    land development analysis
    Monte Carlo
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2013-09-03 14:49:28 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 土地開發分析法是開發人員與估價師評估土地價格的重要方法之一,然而不同從業人員針對相同標的估值往往不盡相同,是估價人員的偏誤造成價格上的差異?抑或是估價人員運用土地開發分析法時,各項投入參數差異所產生?本研究以台北市公開標售成交地價與上市建設公司評估台北市地價分別分析,利用@Risk尋找土地開發分析法各項投入參數可能的機率分配型態,再以蒙地卡羅模擬分析建立土地開發分析價格的機率模型,並利用平均絕對百分比誤差(MAPE)、命中率(hit Rate)及交插驗證(cross-validation)做為機率模型預測估值優劣程度的衡量標準,比較「公開標售」組與「評估地價」組兩者機率模型何者預測能力。結果發現「評估資料」組的估值準確性較佳,「公開標售」組所建立之機率模型較不具預測效果。而三種適合度檢定之機率模型則是以A-D適合度檢定所建立之機率模型表現最佳(MAPE為14.98%,誤差±10% Hit-rate為38.46%,誤差±20% Hit-rate為71.43%)。本文透過機率模型的建立,考量不動產開發隱含之風險,呈現估值的結果由定值轉變為區間;考量不同估價人員或開發業者間,對於相同投入參數不同認知的情形;本模型將對地價敏感性較大之投入參數由定值轉為機率密度函數,較估價人員或開發業者主觀認定各項投入參數之變動更為客觀;可應用於大量估價,亦可作為估價人員或開發業者評估土地時,價格之參考
    Land development analysis is one of the developers and valuers assessment of land price method, different practitioners, however, is often not the same for the valuation of the same subject, valuers bias caused by the difference in price? Or valuers use of the land development analysis, the various input parameters the differences? In this study, turnover in Taipei sale by public tender premium and public listed construction company to assess the land value of Taipei City were analyzed, Looking for land development analysis the probability distribution of possible input parameters using the @ Risk, useing Monte Carlo simulation analysis to establish the land development analysis of the price of the probability model, and using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the hit rate and cross-validation as a probability model to predict the measure of the quality and extent of the valuation, "open auction” group and “assess the premium” group between the two probability model may be predictive ability. The results showed that the valuation accuracy of the assessment information group better probability model created by the sale by public tender group compared with no predictive effect. Three kinds of fit test of the probability model is based on the AD for degree verification to establish the probability model the best performing (MAPE of 14.98%, the error is ± 10% Hit-the rate is 38.46%, the error is ± 20% the Hit-the rate is 71.43% ). Through the establishment of the probability model, consider the real estate development implied the risk of showing the results of the valuation by the valuation change interval; considerations between the different valuation or development industry, for the same input parameters of different cognitive situations; this model will have premium The larger sensitivity of the input parameters from the given value to the probability density function over valuation or development industry subjective judgments more objective changes of the input parameters; can be applied to a large number of valuation, assessment of land may be used as the valuation or development industryWhen the reference price.
    Reference: 1. 王慶煌、馬婉容、黃明達、邱銓城,1993,「建築投資風險性報酬模式」,建築學報第八期,P.29-58
    2. 王慶煌、馬婉容,1992,「建築投資報酬與風險之初步分析」
    3. 江青穗,1996,「土地開發之財務分析」,國立政治大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    4. 卓輝華,2007,「不動產估價」,台北,五南出版社
    5. 金家禾,1998,「土地開發分析法功能之研究」,經社法制論叢第二十二期
    6. 李泓見,2004,「台北都會區不同住宅類型及其面積價差之研究」,國立政治大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    7. 林育聖,2003,「建商商譽與產品訂價之差異分析」,國立政治大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    8. 徐士堯,2006,「土地開發分析法之探析」,土地問題研究季刊4卷2期
    9. 張芳玲,1997,「不動產評價模式特徵價格法與逼近調整法之比較」,住宅學報,5 期,頁17-35。
    10. 張金鶚,2007,「房地產投資與市場分析」,台北,華泰書局
    11. 張能政,2004,「不動產估價行為研究-行為理論之應用」,國立台北大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    12. 張義君,2002,「以數值方法評價商業不動產證券化」,國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文
    13. 黃至民,2002,「利率可調整之不動產抵押貸款證券之評價與分析─CIR 利率模型與邏輯斯蹄提前還本模型之結合」,國立臺灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文
    14. 黃良充,2004,「土地開發分析法評估方式之探討」,土地問題研究季刊3卷3期
    15. 黃勝榮,1989,「不確定情況下台北市不動產開發投資決策之研究─蒙地卡羅模擬方法之運用」,國立政治大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    16. 游適銘,2006,不動產估價理論與實務,大日出版社
    17. 顏信輝、丁緯,2004,由心理學經驗法則關點探討盈餘預測之偏誤類型:併論盈餘水準之影響,「當代會計」,第五卷,第二期,第139-174 頁
    18. 蘇國榮,2003,「建設公司商譽對住宅價格影響之研究」,國立政治大學地政研究所,碩士論文
    19. Byren, P. & Cadman,D ,1984,”Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making in Property Development”, London: E. & F.N.Spon.
    20. Cadman, D. and Austin-Crowe, L. ,1991, Property Development, London: E&F.N. Spon.
    21. Colborne, A.& Hall, P.,1993,”The profits Method of Valuation”, Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 11(2):43-49
    22. Sirmans, C. F. & Geoffrey K. Turnbull and Jonathan Dombrow, 2002,”Residential Development, Risk, And Land Prices”, Journal of Regional Science, 37(4):613-628
    23. Diaz, J., 1990a ,”How Appraisers Do Their Work: A Test of the Appraisal Process and the Development of a Descriptive Model", The Journal of Real Estate Research,5(1):1-15.
    24. Diaz, J., 1990b ,” The process of selecting comparable sales", The Appraisal Journal, 4:533~540.
    25. Downing, P. B.,1973, ” Factors Affecting Commercial Land Values: An Empirical Study of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Land Economics” ,pp.44-56.
    26. Knight, Frank H.,1921,”Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit”
    27. Gallimore, P.,1996,“Confirmation Bias in the Valuation Process: a Test for Corroborating Evidence”, Journal of Property research, 13(4):261-73.
    28. Geoffrey, K. Turnbull and Jonathan Dombrow, C. F. Sirmans, 2006,“Big House, Little House: Relative Size and Value”, Real Estate Economics. 34(3):439-456.
    29. Hirshleifer, David, 2001, “Investor psychology and asset pricing”, Journal of Finance, 56:1533-1597.
    30. Kahneman, D. & Riepe, M.W., 1998, “Aspects of investor psychology”, Journal of Portfolio Management, summer,52-65.
    31. Kelliher, Charles F. and Mahoney, Lois S.,2000,,”Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Improve Long-Term Investment Decisions”, The Appraisal Journal, Jan, 68(1):44-56.
    32. Willis, K. G., 1980,”The Economics of Town and Country Planning, Granada Publishong Limited”
    33. Li, Ling Hin, 2000,”Simple Computer Applications Improve the Versatility of Discounted Cash Flow Analysis”, The Appraisal journal, 68:86-92
    34. Lin, T. C. and Evan, A. W., 2000,“An Empirical Test of the Relationship between the Price of Land and Size of Plot”, Annual Meeting of American Real Estate Society, Santa Barbara, USA.
    35. Marshall, P. & Kennedy, C., 1993,”Development Valuation Techniques.”Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 11(2):57-66
    36. Wolverton ,Marvin L., 1997,”Empirical study of the relationship between residential lot price, size and view” 15:48-57
    37. Millington, A.F., 1988,“An introduction to Property Valuation”, London: Estates Gazette.
    38. Morley, S. et al., 1989, Industrial and Business Space Development, London: E&F.N. Spon.
    39. Myers, D., 1994,”Economics and property”, London: Estates Gazette.
    40. Northcraft, G. B. and M. A. Neale ,1987,”Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions",Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39:84-97.
    41. PAUL THORSNES and DANIEL P. MCMILLEN, 1998,” Land Value and Parcel Size: A Semiparametric Analysis”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17:3, 233-244
    42. Rabin, Matthew, 1996, “Psychology and economics”, Journal of Economic Literature, 36:11-46.
    43. Richard J. Buttimer Jr. & Steven P. Clark and Steven H. Ott, 2008,”Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management” ,Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 36(1)
    44. Sheard, E.M.,1993,“Valuation of Contaminated Land: Current Theory and Practice”, Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 11(2):17-27
    45. Shiller, R.J., 1998, Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system, Handbook of Macroeconomics.
    46. Stull , W.J.,1975, ”Land Use and Zoning in an Urban Economy.”
    47. Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman , 1974,”Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases", science, 185(4157): 1124-1131.
    48. Weaver, William and Michelson, Stuart,2003, ”A Practical Tool to Assist in Analyzing Risk Associated with Income Capitalization Approach Valuation or Investment Analysis,” The Appraisal journal, 71(4):335-343.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    96923025
    98
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096923025
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    302501.pdf4974KbAdobe PDF1718View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback