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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59816

    Title: 住宅新推個案市場價量關係之分析
    The relation between housing price and trading volume
    Authors: 羅于婷
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    Keywords: 住宅空間次市場
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2013-09-03 14:51:01 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 價量關係研究於金融市場甚豐,然於台灣之住宅新推個案市場則相當匱乏,因此本研究關注台灣住宅新推個案市場之價量關係,考量住宅空間次市場差異,區分為內部關係─價量關係,以及外部關係─價/量波及效果。研究以全國及五大都會區為(台北市、台北縣、桃竹地區、台中都會區及南高都會區)為空間範圍;1996年第1季至2009第4季之可能成交價、成交量資料,運用時間序列分析方法,釐清住宅空間次市場內部之價量關係是否存在差異,以及次市場間成交價/量是否存在相互影響的效果,以提供預測市場價量趨勢之參考。
    There are numerous researches in stock markets and finance, but few in Taiwan newly construction and pre-sale housing markets. Using the Cathay Real Estate Index Quarterly Reports for the period 1996-2009 and applying Granger causality test, the thesis examines price and volume relationship in five metropolises (Taipei City, Taipei County, Taoyuan-Hsinchu, Taichung Metropolis and Tainan-Kaohsiung) in Taiwan. And with the concern of the differences of housing submarkets, the price and volume relationship is classified as intra-relationship and inter-relationship. The former is price and volume relationship in a certain metropolis, the later is the ripple effects of housing price or trading volume between metropolises.
    The result of intra-relationship shows that housing price Granger-cause the trading volume in Taipei city. That is, volume provides useful information to predict future price. And there is a long-run relationship in Tainan-Kaohsiung metropolis. From the aspect of inter-relationship, housing price changes first in Taipei City and Taipei County; trading volumes have mutual ripple effect between two neighboring metropolises. The results of the research are useful for housing market participants: We should keep an eye on the changes of trading volume. Also the structure of the submarket is fundamental to form the investment strategies.
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    Description: 碩士
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257016
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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