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    Title: 總體景氣波動對生育率之影響-以臺灣為例
    Authors: 陳逸如
    Chen, Yi Ju
    Contributors: 吳文傑
    陳逸如
    Chen, Yi Ju
    Keywords: 景氣波動
    生育率
    順景氣循環
    不對稱影響
    Date: 2010
    Issue Date: 2013-09-04 15:09:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本篇文章之主要研究目的,為探討總體景氣波動對於我國生育率之影響效果,且更進一步探討總體景氣於繁榮與衰退期間對生育率的影響程度是否一致。針對兩個研究目的,利用1964年至2009年我國總體經濟之時間序列資料,以育齡婦女總生育率做為衡量生育水準的指標,作為被解釋變數,於解釋變數有失業率、女性勞動參與率、婦女有偶比例、女性高等教育程度、社會福利支出、都市化程度及家庭計畫實施前後,探討各變數對生育率的影響程度及方向。以上變數皆經過H-P filter去除單根問題及時間趨勢,並採用複迴歸模型以最小平方法進行實證分析,共建立六組複迴歸模型,分別利用總體變數對景氣波動與生育率間是呈現正循環或反循環關係,以及景氣於繁榮與衰退期間的波動對逾放比率的影響程度是否會有不對稱之影響效果做驗證。
    本文之主要結論分為兩個部分,第一部分發現於本文之研究期間中,我國總體景氣波動會與生育率成負向循環。於第二部分之迴歸估計結果發現,我國總體景氣波動對生育率無不對稱之影響效果,即景氣繁榮與衰退期間對生育率的影響差異不大。由本研究之實證結果可知,臺灣生育率為順景氣循環,當景氣衰退時,生育率會下降,可能為女性對小孩的需求之所得效果大於替代效果所致。希冀本研究之實證結果可以提供政府制定提振生育相關政策之參考
    Reference: 一、中文文獻
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    劉一龍、王德睦(2005),「台灣地區總生育率的分析:完成生育率與生育步
    劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪(2009),「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」,《人口學刊》,39,頁119-155。
    調之變化」,《人口學刊》,30,頁97-123。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    98255002
    99
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255002
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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