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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/61286
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| Title: | 工作記憶與統計推理及決策判斷: 工作記憶如何影響有限理性? |
| Other Titles: | The Evaluation of The Theory of Decision Making by
Sampling with Taiwanese Participants
Working Memory and Statistical Reasoning and Decision Making---How Does It Pertain to Bounded Rationality? |
| Authors: | 楊立行
Yang,Lee-Xieng |
| Contributors: | 國立政治大學心智、大腦與學習研究中心 |
| Keywords: | 工作記憶容量;有限理性;類神經網路;統計推論
Working Memory Capacity;Bounded Rationality;Neural Network Model;Statistical Reasoning |
| Date: | 2010 |
| Issue Date: | 2013-10-09 17:34:35 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 經濟學中的純粹理性假設受到來自心理學實驗結果的挑戰；心理學實驗展現出人們 往往無法對事件發生的機率做出良好的估計，同時也無法做出符合自身最大利益的理性 決策。這顯示出人們其實並非純粹的理性，相反地，人們有的僅是有限理性。心理學研 究顯示，我們的認知系統在每一個當下能對環境作出多少反應，直接受限於工作記憶的 容量。此外，工作記憶也被證實與智力及其它許多認知技能有關，其中也包括決策與判 斷。因此，一個很自然的懷疑便是工作記憶容量可能是有限理性的原因。為了要檢驗此 一想法，本計劃有三個主要的目標，即，測量受試者的工作記憶容量、對受試者進行推 論與決策判斷實驗，以及針對工作記憶建立數理模型。為此，本計劃主要持行項目如下： 第一、以11 種工作記憶容量廣度作業蒐集受試者的工作記憶容量，第二、進行三類與 決策有關的行為實驗（statistical reasoning、hyperbolic discounting function 和cobweb model），第三、針對前述資料，建立工作記憶的數理模型，第四、運用SEM 技術找出 工作記憶容量影響本實驗三類決策行為的可能模式，以及第五、透過SEM 技術檢驗本 計劃發展出來的工作記憶模型中的參數所代表的心理意義。由於本計劃為整合型計劃｢ 認知、心理、與文化因子的突現性複雜現象：整合代理人基計算經濟學、實驗經濟學、 與腦神經經濟學之研究架構」中的一個子計劃，其所蒐集的工作記憶容量資料將會與子 計劃0 所欲建立在經濟學中的受試者資料庫相合併，也由於本計劃將會發展工作記憶的 數理模型，該模型將可以直接被納入子計劃I 所欲開發的軟體代理人，俾利實驗經濟學 的研究，同時，子計劃III 針對認知與情緒的互動研究中，操弄作業複雜度以減耗可用 的工作記憶容量，以觀察人們在最後通諜實驗中的決策表現。本計劃的工作記憶模型一 來可被用於解釋該實驗所蒐集的資料，二來增加對本模型之檢驗。最後，本計劃採用的 SEM 技術乃是由個體資料累積起來，推論心智建構之間的可能關連性，子計劃V 則採 用相反的途徑使用模擬為基礎的經濟計量學，由母群資料推估潛在變項間可能的內在關 連。本計劃與子計劃V 的相互比較，將可提供社會科學方法學上的了解。
The assumption of pure rationality in economics has been challenged by the evidence from psychological experiments that people often cannot make a good estimation of the event probability, nor the optimal/rational decisions for their own good. That is that people are not purely rational, instead what they have is the bounded rationality. Since the working memory capacity (WMC) constrains the extent that our cognitive system can react to the environment at every moment and it has been evident to be predictive of the individual differences in IQ and many cognitive skills, it is reasonable to surmise that the WMC pertains to the bounded rationality. In order to examine this idea, this project will focus on (1) collecting the WMC scores with 11 relevant tasks, (2) collecting the behavioral data in the experiments related to statistical reasoning, hyperbolic temporal discounting function, and cobweb model, (3) establishing a generic computational model for the central executive of working memory, (4) conducting structural equation modeling (SEM) to infer the influencing path of the WMC on the target tasks, and (5) fitting the developed model to the experimental data and using the best estimated parameter values as well as the WMC indices for SEM analysis to examine the psychological meanings of the parameters in the working memory model. As one of the subprojects of the integrated project entitled “Emergent Complexity of Cognitive, Psychological and Cultural Factors: An Integrated Framework of Agent-Based Computational Economics, Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics and Neuroeconomics”, this project is closely related to project 0 in the way of that the WMC data collected here will be linked to the experimental subject database to be established in project 0, to project I, as the working memory model in this project can be directly used as a component of the software agent developed in project I, to project III for model fitting, and to project V, as a methodology comparison between SEM and simulation-based econometric. |
| Relation: | 執行期間：9808-9910 |
| Data Type: | report |
| Appears in Collections: | [心智‧大腦與學習研究中心 ] 國科會研究計畫
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Files in This Item:
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| 98-2628-H-004-001.pdf | | 487Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 774 | View/Open |
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