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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Graduate Institute of Labor Research > Periodical Articles > Item 140.119/63586

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/63586

Title:	中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準討論
Other Titles:	A Study Approach of State Capacity towards China Collapse Thesis
Authors:	初國華;張昌吉 Chu, Gwo-Hua;Chang, Chun-Chig
Contributors:	勞工所
Keywords:	中國崩潰論;中國預測;國家能力;黨國體制 China Collapse Thesis;Predict China;State Capacity;Party State Regime
Date:	2013.07
Issue Date:	2014-01-24 17:47:43 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	天安門事件後的中國崩潰論，直到九○年代的中後期，仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起，則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準，這是值得研究的。至於，如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差，並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型，則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測，其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制，以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。 Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom`s collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China`s rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory`s failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China`s future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP`s ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory.
Relation:	全球政治評論, 43,41-70
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Labor Research] Periodical Articles

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