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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 科技管理與智慧財產研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/64278

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题名:	Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan
作者:	Chu, Wen-Lin;Wu, Feng-Shang;Kao, Kai-Sheng;David C. Yen 朱文伶;吳豐祥;高凱聲;嚴紀中
贡献者:	科管所
关键词:	Mobile communications;Mobile telephony;Technology diffusion;Diffusion forecasting;Deregulation
日期:	2009-10
上传时间:	2014-02-26 17:34:35 (UTC+8)
摘要:	Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.
關聯:	Telecommunications Policy, 33(9), 506-520
数据类型:	article
DOI 連結:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2009.07.003
DOI:	10.1016/j.telpol.2009.07.003
显示于类别:	[科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 期刊論文

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