English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 88266/117736 (75%)
Visitors : 23392417      Online Users : 166
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/64498
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64498


    Title: Determinants of Analyst Forecast Horizons
    Other Titles: 分析師預測的長期程度
    Authors: Lu, Chien-Ju;Chin, Chen-Lung
    呂倩如;金成隆
    Contributors: 會計系
    Keywords: 分析師預測長期程度;所有權結構;外資持股;Analyst Forecast Horizon;Ownership Structure;Foreign Institutional investors
    Date: 2010-08
    Issue Date: 2014-03-06 17:07:21 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究在探討分析師盈餘預測的長期程度、公司治理結構與外資持股之關連性,其中,公司治理結構以控制權與現金流量請求權之偏離程度來衡量。不同於過去研究以分析師預測日與被預測日間之天數來衡量預潮期間(horizon),本研究定義預測的長期程度為I/B/E/S資料庫中的Forecast Periods Indicator (FPI)之最大值。研究結果發現:(1)當公司的控制股東之控制權偏離現金流量請求權程度愈小,分析師愈會發佈長期盈餘預測;(2)當公司的外資持股比例愈高,分析師愈會發佈長期預測,但此結果未存在於國內券商上,此結果與外資一般相對於國內券商擁有較為長期的投資策略一致:(3)擁有較長期的分析師預測之公司,其外資持股變動率顯著低於擁有短期的分析師預測之公司。上述結果在控制了自我選擇偏誤與分析師經驗後仍成立。
    The objective of this paper is to examine the association among the length of analysts' earnings forecast horizons, the ownership structure, measured by the divergence between the ultimate owner's control and the equity ownership level, and foreign institutional ownership at the firm level. Unlike prior studies, which define it as the number of days between forecast date and year end, this paper defines analyst forecast horizons us the largest Forecast Periods Indicator (FPI) from the I/B/E/S database. Using the unique data on foreign institutional holdings at the firm level and cash flow/voting rights in Taiwan, we find that analyst forecast horizons are longer (i. e., multi-year-ahead) for firms with lower control divergence. We also find that analysts are more likely to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts for firms with higher foreign holdings compared to those with lower foreign holdings: the results also indicate that the shareholdings of domestic institutional investors have negative or no association with the length of analyst forecast horizons. The findings are consistent with the notion that foreign institutional investors typically have longer-term investment horizons than do domestic institutional investors. Finally, the results reveal that the difference in turnover rates of stock held by foreign institutional investors between short and long-horizon forecast groups is significant in the first year after the forecast. The results are robust to correct for the self selection bias and control for analyst's experience.
    Relation: 管理學報, 27(4), 371-395
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    371395.pdf9131KbAdobe PDF949View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback