English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 88295/117812 (75%)
Visitors : 23406312      Online Users : 189
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/66713


    Title: 2005年台北縣選民之一致與分裂投票:縣長與鄉鎮市長選舉總體資料之分析
    Other Titles: Straight-and Split-Ticket Voting in the 2005 Taipei County Elections: An Analysis with Aggregate-Level Data
    Authors: 林長志
    Lin, Chang-chih
    Contributors: 選研中心
    Keywords: 一致投票;分裂投票;區位推論;Goodman區位迴歸模型;Multinomial-Dirichlet階層模型
    straight-ticket voting;split-ticket voting;ecological inference;Goodman's ecological regression model;Multinomial-Dirichlet hierarchical model
    Date: 2007.12
    Issue Date: 2014-06-13 17:14:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文使用總體層次的選舉結果資料,藉由區位推論方法,嘗試探討台北縣選民於2005年三合一選舉中,在縣長與鄉鎮市長這兩種不同層級行政首長選舉的一致與分裂投票情形。本文以「Goodman區位迴歸模型」及「Multinomial-Dirichlet階層模型」進行總體資料的分析。研究結果顯示,以Goodman區位迴歸模型僅能看出大致趨勢:不論泛藍或泛綠陣營,在兩項選舉中的一致投票率仍遠高於分裂投票率。而Multinomial- Dirichlet階層模型則更進一步提供每種投票模式的估計係數。大體而言,泛藍陣營的縣長候選人支持者,有將近八成同樣支持泛藍陣營鄉鎮市長候選人,而投給羅艾嘉的選民有將近64%在鄉鎮市長選舉也支持泛綠候選人。若以聯合機率分布來看,藍藍型一致投票則有約五成三的比例,綠綠型一致投票則有超過33%的比例,亦即藍藍型一致投票的比例要高於綠綠型一致投票。在分裂投票部分則是以綠藍型分裂投票率高於藍綠型分裂投票率。最後,本文以區位推論得出之結果,與TEDS2005M民調資料分析之結果進行比較,發現兩者結果大致相符,此亦顯示本文以總體資料進行個體層次行為推論之分析,有高的可信賴程度。
    This article examines voting choices in the local elections of Taipei county and township magistrates in December 2005, by using the ecological inference method with aggregate-level data. Empirical evidence indicates that the result of Goodman's ecological regression model provides an approximate pattern that most voters cast straight-ticket votes in the simultaneous elections. In addition, analysis from the Multinomial-Dirichlet hierarchical model presents nearly 80% of voters who vote for the KMT county magistrate candidate support the KMT/PFP township magistrate candidate, and nearly 64% of voters who vote for the DPP county magistrate candidate support the DPP/TSU township magistrate candidate. Moreover, with regard to the joint probability of the two types above, pan-blues seem to enjoy a higher straight-ticket rate (53%) than pan-greens (over 33%). As to the rate of split tickets between the county and township magistrate elections, we find that a green-blue pattern is noticeably higher than a blue-green pattern. Finally, in comparing the resu1ts of the ecological inference model with aggregate-level data with the resu1ts of cross-tabulation with individual-level data from surveys, we find that there is a similar pattern between these two different approaches.
    Relation: 政治學報, 44, 127-160
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    127160.pdf21041KbAdobe PDF1355View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback