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    Title: 選民如何看待副總統候選人角色?2012年總統選舉的實證分析
    Other Titles: How Important is the Identity of the Vice-Presidential Candidate for Voters? An Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan
    Authors: 林長志
    Lin, Chang-chih
    Contributors: 選研中心
    Keywords: 副總統候選人;憲政與選舉重要性;選舉效應;投票選擇
    Date: 2013.11
    Issue Date: 2014-06-13 17:55:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文的主要研究問題在於探究選民對副總統角色的認知,以及對副總統候選人的偏好評價對其總統投票選擇的影響。研究發現指出,民眾對於副總統一職角色的重要性認知,存在著憲政規範層次與選舉投票實務的差異與矛盾,肯定副總統人選有其憲政角色重要性的選民,不必然在選舉投票時會考量副總統候選人的因素,總統候選人才是主導他們投票選擇的關鍵。而選民對總統與副總統候選人評價所構成的不同偏好組合類型,與其大選投票選擇之間的關係,藉由個體資料的分析,大致符合總統候選人因素優先於副總統候選人、但副總統人選仍舊有其影響兩大論述,顯示選民對於副總統候選人的偏好評價,其所產生的潛在選票影響力其實是存在且不容忽視的。在二元勝算對數模型的分析中,同樣證實了選民對副總統人選的喜好評價,對其總統投票選擇具有顯著性的影響,而對兩黨正副總統候選人間的偏好差異更是重要的因素,且考量總統候選人的因素之後,副總統人選的影響效應並未因此而消失。副總統人選評價對投票選擇之影響,在不同藍綠認同的選民群體間則存在有不同程度的效果。最後,本文認為副總統人選因素對選民之總統投票具有一定程度之影響,應是可以肯定的結論,同時此一研究主題應得到學界更高的重視。
    This paper focuses on voters’ assessment of the role of the vice president and the effect of voter preference for vice presidential candidate (VPC) on voting in the presidential election. Taking the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan as an example, the paper uses individual-level data for analysis. The survey results show differences between voters’ assessment of the constitutional role of the vice president and their actual voting behavior. Over 30% of respondents who believe that the vice president plays an important constitutional role do not take into account the VPC when voting in the presidential election. Moreover, voters’ assessment of the presidential and vice presidential candidate can be divided into nine categories. The relationship between these categories and voting choice in the election demonstrates the following two hypotheses. First, the presidential candidate (PC) is a more important factor than the VPC in the presidential election, and, second, the VPC still has an effect on voters. The data shows that the effect of the voters’ evaluation/preference of VPC on their voting choice is nontrivial and significant. Finally, the binary logit model shows a similar result for influence of the VPC on voting choice and furthermore indicates that the gap between the evaluations to the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the two major parties is a more important factor on voter choice than the specific evaluation toward a single candidate. In the model, the influence of the VPC does not fall away when we take into account the PC and has differential effect on blue-camp and green-camp supporters.
    Relation: 選舉研究, 20(2), 73-102
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

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