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    Title: 衡量台灣在1981年至2012年間的貿易利得
    Measuring Gains from Trade of Taiwan from 1981 to 2012
    Authors: 劉祐汝
    Contributors: 徐則謙
    劉祐汝
    Keywords: 貿易利得
    台灣進出口
    引力模型
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-07-14 11:23:51 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文在Arkolakis et al.(2009) 模型架構下,經由簡化而一致的貿易估計式,以較少量的數據資料,得到1981年至2012年間的台灣貿易利得,分別在單一產業單一要素、多產業單一要素及多產業多要素三種形式下,其對應的完全競爭與獨佔性競爭的估計結果。實證結果顯示,三種形式下的貿易利得起伏不盡相同,但大致呈現先降後升的一致走勢,表示貿易利得同樣受到1980-2012年間的重大總體經濟事件影響。
    在1980 年代,主因第二次石油危機,以及台灣匯率急速升值,導致出口疲弱,貿易利得持續下降。1990年代,則在台灣歷經產業升級調整後,高科技產業使出口增加,進而提振貿易利得逐年上升。進入2000年後,台灣貿易利得隨即因2001年爆發的美國網路泡沫造成衰退。在2002年,台灣加入WTO後,隨著貿易障礙的逐漸移除,貿易利得也有顯著的成長。直到2008年,金融海嘯造成全球景氣衰退、需求疲軟,進而使台灣的貿易利得也巨幅下挫。
    Reference: 1. Anderson, J. E. and Van Wincoop, E. (2001). Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle. Technical report, National bureauof economic research.

    2. Arkolakis, C., Costinot, A., Donaldson, D., and Rodríguez-Clare, A.(2012). The elusive pro-competitive effects of trade. Unpublished, MIT.

    3. Arkolakis, C., Costinot, A., and Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2009). New trade models, same old gains? Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.

    4. Atkeson, A. and Burstein, A. (2008). Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices. The American Economic Review, 98(5):1998–2031.

    5. Edmond, C., Midrigan, V., and Xu, D. Y. (2012). Competition,
    markups, and the gains from international trade. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.

    6. Feenstra, R. C. (2002). Border effects and the gravity equation: consistent methods for estimation. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(5):491–506.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    101351024
    102
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101351024
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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