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    Title: 中國大陸中大城市住宅需求彈性的差異性分析
    Other Titles: Analysis on the Heterogeneity of Residential Housing Demand Elasticity among China Major Cities
    Authors: 林祖嘉;林素菁;游士儀
    Lin, Chu-chia Steve;Lin, Sue-Jing;You, Shih-Yi
    Contributors: 經濟系
    Keywords: 住宅需求彈性;門檻迴歸模型;地區差異
    housing demand elasticity;panel threshold;regional diversity
    Date: 2013.07
    Issue Date: 2014-08-05 11:36:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: The right figures of price elasticity and income elasticity of housing demand have important policy implications. However, the empirical studies of China’s housing demand elasticity are relatively fewer than international related studies. Moreover, there exists large discrepancy among them. The key factor to such huge difference among the existing research conclusion is probably because that China is still a developing country and also in a period of growing housing market. Therefore, the housing demand will adjust constantly. In accordance with the analysis above, the purpose of this study is using a nonlinear threshold framework to re-estimate the housing demand elasticity of China’s 35 major cities in the period of 2008Q1-2011Q4. Our main findings are as follows: First, price elasticity and income elasticity of housing demand will decrease by the increasing of housing price-to-income ratio. Secondly, the fluctuation of some cities’ housing demand elasticity primarily is due to seasonal factors. However, seasonal factor on periodic hosing demand elasticity bears little resemblance in some major cities of China’s different regions. Thirdly, the major cities in East region have higher average housing price-to-income ratio, with the result the average housing demand elasticity of the major cities in East region is lower than in middle and west region.
    住宅需求的所得以及價格彈性,對於住宅經濟學的理論與政策都有很重要的涵義。然而和國外文獻相比,估計中國大陸中大城市的住宅需求彈性研究仍屬少數,且研究結果有很大的差異。而造成文獻上估計結果差異很大的原因可能在於中國大陸屬發展中國家,經濟和住宅市場都正處於快速膨脹期,因此整體的房屋需求會有不斷調整的現象。有鑑於此,本研究使用2008年至2011年35個中大城市的季資料,應用非線性的門檻模型,探討不同房價所得比之下,房屋需求彈性的變化。實證結果顯示:第一,中國大陸35個中大城市的住宅的所得彈性與價格彈性,會隨著房價所得比的增加而下修。第二,部分城市的需求彈性會受到季節性的影響,然而不同地區的城市受到的季節性影響週期並不完全相同。第三,本文比較了東部、中部以及西部中大城市的住宅需求彈性,並發現東部地區民眾的購屋負擔最重,因此住宅需求彈性也比較小,由此可推得當中國大陸政府在所有地區實施相同的住宅政策時,東部地區的民眾會受到較大的影響。
    Relation: 不動產研究, 1(1)
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

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