| Abstract: | 台灣地區近年來,由於投機與地價高漲之惡性循環,造成地價不斷持續漲(許文昌,民國七十九年),因而產生了許多土地使用及都市發展等問題;然而國內、外有關土地使用理論之探討均缺乏有關「等待」使用之研究,因而投機對地價及土地使用之影響亦甚少談及。因此,本研究首先從理論分析,根據過去之研究,提出應用Mills(1981)模型及Liu(1988)及Grimaud(1989)所建立的密度模型,探討土地投機對地價、使用密度之影響。其次,再以台中市為實證分析的對象,以地價成長的趨勢、人口分布的狀況、新建住宅的數量以及住宅區發展的空地為指標,企圖由歷年各項資料的空間變動情形來觀察都市的發展,以實際驗證理論分析所得之結果。時間則以民國七十年至八十年之資料為主,企圖透過時間上的比較,觀察整個台中市都市發展在空間上變化的情形。研究方法主要係應用地理資訊系統,透過趨勢面分析方法(The Trend Surface Analysis Approach),瞭解台中市都市發展及地價之間的關係從而驗證先前之理論模型。
The theoretic model is an extension of the work by Mills (1981). Therefore, a two-period speculative urban land-use model with variable density is presented in this paper. In this model, households provide labor to firms and firms pay wages to households. Firms produce single composite commodity for local consumption and intercity trade. Constructors supply floor space to households and firms. The construction cost of buildings is a function to the power two of the density. Development strategies open to constructors include developing industrially or residentially in either period, and leaving land undeveloped in both periods. Conversion from one use to another in the second period is precluded by prohibitive conversion costs. Structures are durable and nonmalleable, and construction costs are amortized throughout their lives. Taichung City is chosen to test the theoretical model. Land price, population, and new building distribution are the indexes of urban development. The Trend Surface Analysis Approach is applied to understand the relationships between urban development and vacant land distribution in Taichung City from 1981 to 1991. |
