English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 109948/140897 (78%)
Visitors : 46093318      Online Users : 1087
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/69312


    Title: 臺灣生育率變遷對於人口成長的慣性作用
    Other Titles: Momentum Effect of Changing Fertility on Population Growth in Taiwan
    Authors: 陳信木
    Chen, Hsin-mu
    Contributors: 社工所
    Keywords: 繁衍;淨繁殖率;穩定人口;定常人口;人口慣性
    Net reproduction rate;Stable population model;Variable-rapproach;Non-stable population model;Population momentum
    Date: 2010.06
    Issue Date: 2014-08-27 11:53:28 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 對於一個封閉人口而言，自然增加乃是決定其人口繁衍之規模與速度的動力來源。但是，自然增加率固然是測量人口成長的良好指標，卻是無法反映人口之年齡結構，因而不能正確掌握該人口特定年齡群體的生育與死亡風險，相對地，Lotka的穩定人口理論，改以淨繁殖率測量人口繁衍的水準。具體而言，穩定人口模型在固定年齡結構的假定之下，將人口成長的水準透過複合式年輪的繁殖函數而反映，所以，透過Lotka的人口再生方程式可以瞭解人口動力變遷之下的年齡結構變化。不過，正因穩定人口理論假定「穩定人口」條件，用以測量實際人口成長時，特別是劇烈轉型的人口而言，亦將相當程度失真偏誤。因此，擴展古典的穩定人口理論，針對非穩定人口測量其人口繁衍水準，已經成為近來的人口研究熱門課題。本研究即以NIR、古典Lotka模型、與variable-r模型三個途徑，分別比較臺灣人口成長，藉以獲得更佳的人口估計和瞭解臺灣的人口發展潛在問題。除此之外，即使完成生育轉型的社會，低度生育率對於稍後人口成長仍將產生相當程度的影響作用，此即所謂的「人口慣性效應」。所以，本文亦將特別著重於探討臺灣在生育率轉型變遷過程，其所產生的人口成長慣性效應與其後果。
    Taiwan has been experiencing radical fertility transition over the past several decades. Initially, Taiwan struggled against the population explosion caused by high fertility level. However, depopulation nightmare is currently suffered by Taiwan`s demographic regime. Classical Lotka`s stable population model has extensively employed to study the relationship between vital dynamics and age structure. Keyfits suggested the population momentum approach by relating stable population model to population size rather than to age structure or vital dynamics. In this study, we adopt Keyfit`s new formulation and apply it to the non-stable, or variable-r, demographic conditions in Taiwan. Based on the findings from non-stable population model, the momentum effect of population growth in Taiwan is more pessimistic than any image suggested by previous studies. Were we able to raising Taiwan`s lowest-low fertility to the replacement level, it is going to losing the population size more than 25% in the future.
    Relation: 人口學刊, Vol.40, pp.1-39
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[社會工作研究所] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    4011.pdf930KbAdobe PDF2984View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback