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    Title: 兩岸經濟整合與簽署ECFA對台灣民眾統獨立場的影響:2008至2012定群追蹤樣本的實證分析
    The Impact of Cross-Strait Economic Integration and ECFA on the Public’s Attitude toward the Independence/Unification Issue in Taiwan: An Empirical Analysis of Panel Survey Data from 2008 to 2012.
    Authors: 李冠成
    Lee, Kuan Chen
    Contributors: 楊婉瑩
    Yang, Wan Ying
    李冠成
    Lee, Kuan Chen
    Keywords: 定群追蹤資料
    ECFA
    台灣人認同
    統獨立場
    固定與隨機效果並用法
    panel data
    ECFA
    Taiwanese identity
    Attitudes toward independence/ unification
    Hybrid method of fixed and random effect model
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-10-01 13:39:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台灣和中國大陸於2010年六月正式簽署「經濟合作架構協議」(ECFA)。無疑地,這是兩岸交流有史以來規模最大、最具官方性質的制度性協商。在象徵意義上,意味著兩岸經濟整合邁入一個嶄新的階段。在實質意義上,透過早期收穫計畫的制度安排,使得兩岸之間的部分貨品和服務享有關稅調降的特殊待遇,對於台灣的整體經濟和部分產業具有立即性的影響。因此,本文旨在探討兩岸簽署ECFA前後,台灣民眾的統獨態度有無發生變化?在影響選民統獨態度因素中,有長期穩定與短期變動,也有感性與理性面向,選民對於兩岸簽訂ECFA的經濟效應評估又扮演了何種角色?最後,隨著兩岸經濟整合的腳步加速,理性層次的麵包效應又是否可能抵銷情感認同的作用?

    本研究使用2008年到2012年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的定群追蹤資料(panel data),並以「固定與隨機效果並用法」(hybrid method of fixed and random effect model)來分析兩個時間點民眾統獨立場的動態變化。研究結果發現從08年到12年這段時間,民眾的統獨立場呈現往現狀/統一方向移動的趨勢,儘管變化的量不大,但在統計上卻是顯著的。在兩個時間點的動態架構中,選民對於ECFA經濟效益評估的態度變化,不僅與統獨立場的變遷模式與變化方向互相連動,在控制其他變數之後,ECFA經濟評估的態度變化對於統獨立場也有獨立性的影響效果。最後,當短期經濟利益和情感認同相互牴觸時,ECFA經濟的效果甚至會削弱感性認同的作用力。這意味在給定台灣人認同沒有改變的情況下,民眾仍有可能因為簽署ECFA的經濟因素而移動其統獨立場。因此,隨著兩岸經濟整合日益加深,影響個人統獨態度中理性層面利害考量的因素應該予以重視。
    The Taiwanese government has signed the ECFA with China in June 2010. Undoubtedly, ECFA is one of the largest and most official institutional negotiations in the history of cross-strait interactions and exchanges. Signing ECFA with China not only represents that cross-strait economic integration has entered into a new stage, through the arrangements of early harvest program, its impacts on Taiwan’s economy and industry are also immediate. Accordingly, this study aims to explore whether Taiwan people’s attitude toward the independence/unification changed or not after signing ECFA? How the economic inducement from China affect Taiwanese voters’ policy stances on independence/unification issue? Finally, as the accelerated pace of cross-strait economic integration, whether economic factors such as ECFA evaluation may offset the effects of emotional identity on the issue of independence/unification?

    By using individual panel data from ‘Taiwan Election and Democratization Study’ (TEDS), and taking advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, the empirical results show that respondents in 2012 are statistically significantly more inclined to maintain status quo or unification in comparison with their attitudes in 2008. Moreover, the attitudinal change of ECFA evaluation are not only systematically associated with the change of policy stance on independence/unification issue, it also reveals independent effect in the statistical model after controlling for other variables. Finally, although emotional affective identity is an important factor to determine public’s policy stances on the issue of Independence/Unification, its effects have begun to weaken especially when the economic interests are large and visible. The implication is that we shouldn’t underestimate the logic importance of political economy played in the trend of regional economic integration, and short-term economic fluctuations may have influence on long-term affective identity.
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