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    Title: 台海兩岸關係發展之軌跡
    Other Titles: The Locus of Relations across the Taiwan Straits
    Authors: 劉德海
    Liou, To-Hai
    Contributors: 外交系
    Keywords: 台灣;兩岸關係;經濟整合;中國
    Taiwan;China;Cross-Strait Relations;economic integration
    Date: 2013-09
    Issue Date: 2015-03-24 17:57:30 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 儘管進入冷戰後時代以來,發生戰爭的機率在世界各地都明顯地大幅減少,但是經濟繁榮的東北亞卻未能完全擺脫戰爭的陰影,危機仍此起彼落。我們若比較冷戰後時代的台海兩岸關係與朝鮮半島的兩韓關係,不難發現鐘擺現象不僅存在於這兩組雙邊關係間,而且也存在於兩岸互動與兩韓互動之間。1990年代初期當兩韓關係因發生第一次北韓核武危機而陷入緊張情勢之時,兩岸關係卻出現首度對話。1990年代後期至本世紀初,當兩韓關係因自由派金大中與盧武鉉兩任總統執政而走向和解,並舉行有史以來的兩度高峰會之時,兩岸關係卻因台灣島內台獨意識抬頭而陷入低潮,甚至有1995-1996年的台海危機。2008年馬英九就任總統後兩岸關係政經關係始大幅改善,而另一方面,兩韓關係在2008年2月李明博總統上台後由於他對北韓採取高姿態的強硬路線,北韓進行了一連串的挑釁(2009年的第二次核子試爆、2010年3月涉嫌擊沈天安艦、11月砲擊延坪島)而一再出現危機。本文主旨在首先檢視過去六十多年兩岸關係的發展,並點出每個時期的特徵與重大變化。然後再聚焦在馬英九總統就任以來的兩岸政經關係,試圖探索兩岸互動的模式以及促進與阻礙兩岸互動的主要動力與阻力。而這些動力與阻力對未來兩岸關係的影響,其中包括兩岸互動是否會再出現鐘擺現象由現在的正面導向擺向負面導向抑或是維持目前的經濟整合或由經濟整合走向政治整合。
    With the advent of the post-Cold War era, chances for war have been greatly diminished in most regions in the world. Nevertheless, Northeast Asia has not been able to free from military confrontation shaped in the Cold War and crisis continues unabated. If we compare inter-Korean relations with cross-Straits relations in the post-Cold War period, interesting pendulum phenomena can be found in the two sets of dyadic relations. While inter-Korea relations were tense due to the first North Korean nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, Taiwan and China were engaged.The purpose of this paper is to assess the evolution of cross-Straits relations in the past more than six decades, with a particular focus on recent four years under Ma Yingjeou and Hu Jintao. Relations across the Taiwan Straits during the period have dramatically shifted from hostile confrontation to active economic engagement coupled with political reconciliation. This paper intends to identify forces contributing to cross-Strait engagement and implications for future development across the Taiwan Straits.Cross-Strait relations in the past more than six decades since 1949 can be roughly divided into five periods, namely the first period of 1949-1978; followed by the second period (1979-1987); the third period (1987- 1995); the fourth period (1996-2008); the fifth period (2008-until now).
    Relation: WTO研究 , 23 , 83 - 109
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[外交學系] 期刊論文

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