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class size;grey prediction
|Issue Date: ||2015-03-26 17:58:03 (UTC+8)|
Since 1991, the importance of small class has been constantly emphasized by education reform groups. The main policy in "The Education Report of Republic China" and "The Practice Program of Education Reform", published by Ministry of Education, is to lower the elementary and junior high school student number by 35 per class. However, to carry out class size requires consideration for various factors such as class size and the demand for qualified teachers to make correct statistics for reference. The primary goal of this research is to improve the limit of traditional forecasting methods by using grey prediction skill that required just four datum to analyze the teacher supply and demand problem resulted from the reduce of "class size" number. The results are as follows: 1. As for elementary schools, the teacher number should be 1.5 per class according to the present law. Therefore, if the notion is maintained the same with the consideration of nine year compulsory education, there should be 7631 more teachers to be employed in 2000. However, due to the decrease of population of school age, the number of teacher newly employed has showed the phenomenon of negative growth since 2001. 2. As for junior high schools, under the notion of 2 teachers per class, there should be 3227 ones newly employed in 2000, 1006 ones in 2001 and 1861 ones in 2002 school year. There are totally 6094 junior high school teacher demands in three years. 3. After the demand number of elementary school teachers in 2000 subtracted from the provided 5812 teachers per year by nine normal colleges, there just be 1819 ones left with the premise that the personnel is increased to 2 per class. Therefore, since 2001, the supply of elementary school teachers will exceed the demand. 4. There are 18145 students in the primary three Normal Universities in Taiwan without Including ones in the department of Education in ChengChi University as well as other colleges and universities with secondary school education courses. The number of junior high school teacher supply has already far exceeded the demand in future three years. 5. We are facing the problem of the excessive supply of compulsory education teachers; thus, to carry out the policy of constricting class size has already supported by the aspect of teacher number.
|Relation: ||教育政策論壇, 3(2), 128-172|
|Data Type: ||article|
|Appears in Collections:||[教育學系] 期刊論文|
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