English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 94586/125118 (76%)
Visitors : 30563509      Online Users : 143
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 金融學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/7469
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/7469


    Title: 以實質選擇權法評估高科技產業股價
    Other Titles: The Valuation of High-Tech Companies: A Real Options Approach
    Authors: 林家帆;陳威光;郭維裕
    Lin, Chia-Fan;Chen, Wei-Kuang;Kuo, Wei-Yu
    Date: 2002-07
    Issue Date: 2008-11-14 12:28:14 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 一般用來衡量企業實質價值的方法有三類:現金流量折現法、相對評價法(如本益比法)以及實質選擇權模型。傳統的現金流量折現法忽略了管理者的決策彈性;本益比法會受到盈餘品質的影響。由於高科技產業具有潛在獲利高而下方風險有限的特性,類似買權,因此本研究以實質選擇權法來評估高科技公司之股價,期能更真實地反映企業價值。本研究以Schwartz & Moon (2000)連續時間下的實質選擇權模型來評估台灣IC設計產業龍頭-威盛電子股份有限公司股票理論價值。根據威盛公司之相關歷史資料估計參數,代入模型求算理論股價,並與民國90年第一季實際股價比較,本文發現實際股價與理論股價346.54元相當接近。而由敏感度分析的結果發現影響威盛股價的四個關鍵參數,包括成本占收入之比率、賺取超額報酬之期間、企業終值和收入成長率隨機過程之回復平均速度。
    The valuation of high-tech companies has been a controversial issue in the academic literature. Since high-tech companies have option-like characteristics and asymmetric payoffs, this study applies real-options pricing model by Schwartz and Moon (2000) to obtain the fair stock price of Very Innovative Architecture Technologies (VIA), the world's largest PC core logic chipset supplier with growing exposure to communications chips and microprocessors. After estimating the parameters and solving the model by Monte Carlo simulation method, the fair stock price of VIA Technologies is $346.54, which is close to the market prices in the first quarter of 2001. In addition, this study performs sensitivity analysis in order to determine those critical parameters that have significant effect on the fair stock price. As a result, we find that four critical parameters are cost-to-revenue ratio, horizon of the estimation, terminal value and speed of adjustment for the rate of growth process.
    Relation: 管理評論,21(3),97-113
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[金融學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    97-113.pdf863KbAdobe PDF685View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback