中國大陸三十餘年來經濟改革的成果雖然驚人，但近年來的「社會抗爭」也 同樣令人咋舌，不論在規模與頻率上均節節升高，因而在各地形成了官方「維穩」 與民眾「維權」間相互較量的博奕。本計畫所要回答的便是：中國國家能力與社 會穩定間的關係究竟為何？本研究將透過理論對話與實證資料分析，建立當前中 國國家能力與社會抗爭的關係，一方面透過大量的社會抗爭資料蒐集（預計從 2002-2017 年），說明當前中國社會抗爭的特性；另一方面，透過實證分析嘗試 找出以下問題的答案：1.具「組織性」與「大規模」的抗爭如何形成？其對抗爭 行動與國家回應影響為何？2.群眾暴力與國家鎮壓間的關係為何？3.在抗爭事件 中，「中央政府－地方政府－抗爭者」間的關係為何？4.社會抗爭事件的發生與 解決對官員晉升的影響為何？中共中央一再強調的「加強與創新社會管理」有何 成效？本計畫預期執行四年，期望透過本研究能更深入理解當前中國國家與社會 的動態關係。 Although the positive outcomes of China’s thirty years of economic reforms have undeniably been remarkable, in recent years, it is rather the occurrence of ‘popular protest’ which has become most striking. As protests increase steadily in terms of both scale and frequency, it is evident that the official policy of maintaining social stability has directly clashed horns with the public’s desire to exercise their rights. This increasing tension raises an important question: how precisely can the relation between state capacity and social stability be characterized? By taking into account both theoretical perspectives and empirical data, this project attempts to further elucidate the relationship between popular protest and the employment of the state capacity in China. The project will expect to collate a large body of data ( from 2003 to 2017)in order to clarify the precise characteristics of the nature of popular protest in China, and then carry out quantitative analysis of the empirical data to identify the followings: 1.how do the large-scale and organized mobilization protest emerge? 2.the relationship between of popular violence and the employment of the state capacity for repression?3.what the links are between the three levels of protesters, local government, and central government?4. Faced with an unstoppable trend of increasing popular protest, what are the new policies of CCP central authorities? This project therefore hopes to bridge this gap in the literature by processing a large body of data in order to accurately depict both popular protest and the state response in China.