政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/77364
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 92429/122733 (75%)
造访人次 : 26442453      在线人数 : 230
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77364


    题名: 廣義之潛在變數模型之探討及其在選舉研究之應用
    其它题名: A General Framework for Latent Variable Models and Its Applications to Survey Data Analysis
    作者: 蔡宗漢
    贡献者: 政治學系
    关键词: 廣義之潛在變數模型;單一選區兩票制;投票行為;貝氏統計
    generalized latent variable models;mixed-member majoritarian systems;voting behavior;Bayesian methods
    日期: 2014
    上传时间: 2015-08-05 11:02:44 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 政治制度在政治學研究中向來具有舉足輕重的地位,由於其在政治實務的重要性,也是歷久不衰 的研究主題,而制度研究的範圍也逐漸擴展到探究制度對個體行為以及其形成的總體現象的影響。在 台灣以選舉制度最受到一般人民與研究者的重視,因此,本計畫關心的正是台灣立法委員選舉制度對 政黨競爭與選民行為的影響。在目前並立式單一選區兩票制的政治環境下,選民在投票時,會審慎思 考如何分別投下手中的兩張選票。由於兩張選票的選區大小、選票結構與當選規則皆完全不同,選民 在投票時所考慮的因素也不相同。但是因為選民是同時投下兩張選票,所以這些背後的因素會互相影 響。釐清這些因素如何影響選民在兩張選票的決定便是此計劃的主要目標,為達成此目標,此計畫將 採用一般化的潛在變數模型來分析個體層次的調查資料,並以貝氏統計估計之。此統計模型的優點是 能夠適切地呈現資料產生過程的主要特徵。
    From the perspective of institutional scholars, political institutions play a critical role in the political process, in which political institutions link public preferences to policy decisions. Among democratic institutions, electoral systems attract the most attention of the citizens and researchers in Taiwan. One of the reasons why Taiwan’s political scientists pay much attention to electoral systems is due to the legislative electoral reform in 2005. After then, Taiwan’s legislators are elected by a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system, which is a combination of a plurality with single-member-district (SMD) system and a closed-list proportional representation (PR) system, rather than a single non-transferable vote with multimember district (SNTV-MMD) system. One of the characteristics of MMM systems is that each voter has two ballots: one for a constituency representative and the other for a party. In addition, the district magnitude and electoral formula for these two tiers are also different. As a result, voters’ voting decisions for these two ballots depend on different information. In specific, voters rely more on candidates’ personal attributes than party brands when voting for constituency representatives while they rely more on the information of parties than on the information of individual candidates when voting for party lists. However, since voters simultaneously cast the two ballots, voters’ voting decisions for these two ballots are somewhat correlated. The correlation between the two voting decisions may induce spurious relationship if only one voting decision is analyzed. To deal with this problem, I apply generalized latent variable models to analyzing survey data, which is estimated by Bayesian methods.
    關聯: MOST103-2410-H004-004-MY2
    PF10301-0180
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[政治學系] 國科會研究計畫

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    103-2410-H-004-004-MY2.pdf504KbAdobe PDF176检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈