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    Title: 我國總體經濟政策有效性之比較: St. Louis模型之應用
    Effectiveness Comparison of Macroeconomic Policy in Taiwan: St. Louis Model Applied
    Authors: 林毅智
    Lin, Yh Jhih
    Contributors: 黃明聖
    林毅智
    Lin, Yh Jhih
    Keywords: St. Louis模型
    VECM模型
    財政政策
    貨幣政策
    貿易政策
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2015-09-01 16:28:57 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本篇文章用縮減式迴歸來研究財政政策、貨幣政策、和貿易政策對國內政策有效性,以及比較朱衛華 (1990) 政府政策有效性是否和本文相同。
    本研究目的有以下兩點,第一、在小型開放經濟體系中,政府推動不同政策下,何種政策長期效果較強。第二、以縮減式迴歸探討不同政策下,其對產出影響。除此之外,從大多數文獻中財政政策與貨幣政策的有效性比較,貨幣政策為強而有效的政策,而在國內貨幣政策有效性是否優於財政政策?
    本文使用傳統的St. Louis模型與向量誤差修正模型,估計不同政策的有效性,因為目前常用向量誤差修正模型,所以本研究主要採用向量誤差修正模型,再者時間序列模型皆會檢定期間內是否發生結構性改變,本文採用CUSUM穩定性檢定後,可以發現在2008年第3季後發生結構性改變,推估其結構性改變的原因來自於金融海嘯。
    由於估計期間內出現結構性改變,因此參閱方惠蓉 (2002) 將結構性改變分段處理以利於分析結果,而本文將結構性改變分成兩段,分別為金融海嘯前與金融海嘯後。
    最後可以從實證得知,三種政策在金融海嘯前皆為正向的經濟影響,強度大小由高至低排序為財政政策、貿易政策和貨幣政策,而財政政策在金融海嘯後是負向的影響,但是貨幣與貿易政策卻是正向的影響,此外貨幣政策在金融海嘯後強度大小位居首位。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    102255023
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022550231
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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