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    Title: 從創新擴散理論分階段探討國家寬頻發展影響因素
    Identifying Key Determinants of Broadband Diffusion by Stage Based on Innovation Diffusion Theory
    Authors: 林茂雄
    Lin, Mao Shong
    Contributors: 吳豐祥
    Wu, Feng Shang
    林茂雄
    Lin, Mao Shong
    Keywords: 固定寬頻
    行動寬頻
    FTTX
    創新擴散
    關鍵影響因素
    寬頻政策
    Fixed broadband
    Mobile broadband
    FTTX
    Innovation diffusion
    Key determinants
    Broadband policy
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2015-09-01 16:31:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 寬頻擴散可促進國家之生產力、就業、經濟成長及國家競爭力等,若能精準找出促進寬頻擴散之關鍵影響因素,將有利於政府集中資源有效率地推動寬頻發展。本研究提出研究問題與假說,以Rogers (2003)及Hall (2006)所提出影響創新擴散速率之社經因素、採用成本、採用效益、網路效應、資訊及不確定性及產業環境等6大因素面向為基礎,蒐集OECD國家及台灣等31國家相關資料,挑選Gompertz模型進行固定寬頻擴散Panel資料迴歸分析,發現各因素在全期及不同擴散階段有不同之顯著性與影響程度,表示分階段分析有其必要性。擴散初期之關鍵影響因素為收入、教育水準、平台競爭程度、人口密度及實施LLU累積年度等5項,而擴散後期之關鍵影響因素為寬頻價格、網際網路內容、決定採用時固定寬頻用戶比例、撥接用戶比例及擁有PC家庭比例等5項,可作為政府及業者於不同擴散階段精準投入資源以有效推動寬頻擴散之參考。
    本研究續以前述分析結果選取日本、南韓、美國、丹麥、瑞士及台灣進行實際擴散比較,確認前述關鍵影響因素挑選之有效性。擴散初期,台灣有高人口密度優勢,若能提早推動寬頻並推動促進競爭措施,可促進初期之快速擴散。擴散後期,台灣國際排名退步,原因為寬頻價格過高,故此階段政府及業者應特別確保寬頻價格能夠使潛在採用者有能力並願意付費採用,才能促使寬頻持續有效擴散。
    最後,本研究採用與固定寬頻相同迴歸分析模型對FTTX及行動寬頻分別進行分析後,有關行動寬頻,教育水準、寬頻價格、決定採用時行動寬頻用戶比例、人口密度、網際網路內容、使用固定寬頻語音服務比例、決定採用時FTTX用戶比例及使用網際網路家庭比例等8項變數有顯著效應;有關行動寬頻,收入、寬頻價格、網際網路內容、決定採用時行動寬頻用戶比例、使用網際網路家庭比例及人口密度等6項變數有顯著效應。因此,政府及業者若擬促進特定寬頻服務發展,仍須針對其服務特性推動特定之政策或策略。其中,寬頻價格、網際網路內容、網路效應及使用網際網路家庭比例等4項因素對FTTX及行動寬頻服務之影響類似,而此4個因素與固定寬頻後期擴散之關鍵影響因素較相近,因此,對於已存在市場的服務,即使是後來以較佳品質或功能之新服務型式提供,新服務之關鍵影響因素仍較接近已存在市場服務關鍵因素。
    總之,本研究不同於過去文獻,以創新擴散理論為基礎,以國家層級資料量化分析與探討寬頻擴散之關鍵影響因素,除分別提供政策及管理建議供政府及業者參考外,亦補強Rogers (2003)及Hall (2006)所提出創新擴散理論未釐清與比較創新擴散影響因素在不同擴散階段影響之不足。
    Broadband diffusion may enhance innovation, productivity, employment, economic growth, and, ultimately, national competitiveness. If key determinants for broadband diffusion are identified, governments can align its resources with them to effectively promote the diffusion. Based on the determinants of the diffusion rate identified by Rogers (2003) and Hall (2006), this research compiled data available about OECD countries as well as Taiwan to implement overall and staged panel regressions on fixed broadband diffusion by adopting Gompertz model. The findings indicate that the significance of the determinants varies between overall and staged analysis, which consequently justifies the necessity of a staged analysis. The key determinants in the early stage are income, education level, platform competition, population density, and the accumulated years of implementing LLU policy; however, in the late stage they are broadband price, Internet content, network effect, the penetration of dial-up users, and percentage of household with computer. Governments may more accurately promote broadband diffusion according to different key determinants in different stages.
    This research further compared the real fixed broadband diffusion of Japan, South Korea, USA, Denmark, Switzerland, and Taiwan based on the previous analysis results. The findings generally justify the choice of key determinants in the previous analysis. In the early stage, Taiwan had the advantage of high population density. If the government could have promoted fixed broad banded services and market competition earlier, the penetration would have grown much faster. In the late stage, since the broadband price was too high in Taiwan, its international ranking of fixed broadband penetration declined. Therefore, in order to further promote the diffusion of fixed broadband, the government should have ensured that the price was low enough to convince the potential adoptors to purchase broadband services.
    Finally, this research adopted the same approach as that of previous fixed broadband to analyze the diffusion of FTTX and mobile broadband, respectively. Education level, broadband price, network effect of FTTX, network effect of mobile broadband, Internet content, population density, percentage of household with computer, and the penetration of fixed VOIP users have significant effect on FTTX diffusion. However, income, broadband price, network effect of mobile broadband, Internet content, population density, and percentage of household with computer have significant effect on mobile broadband diffusion. Therefore, governments or operators should tailor their policies or strategies for specific services. The effects of broadband price, Internet content, network effect, and percentage of household with computer are similar in both FTTX and mobile broadband, and they are also similar to the key determinants of fixed broadband diffusion in the late stage. Therefore, even though a new service with better quality or function is introduced in an existing market, its key determinants are more similar to those of the existing service depending on its diffusion stage.
    In conclusion, different from previous research, this one applied national-level data to quantatively analyzed and explore the key determinants of broadband diffusion based on innovation diffusion theory. The research findings not only propose policy and management suggestions to governments and service providers, but also supplement the the theory proposed by Rogers (2003) and Hall (2006), which did not identify and compare the determinants of innovation in different diffusion stages.
    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景 1
    第二節 研究目的與文獻缺口 6
    第三節 研究問題與方法 8
    第四節 研究範圍 10
    第五節 論文結構 12
    第二章 文獻回顧與探討 13
    第一節 寬頻發展影響因素研究 13
    第二節 創新擴散理論 17
    第三節 創新擴散的分析模型之選用 22
    第四節 本章小結 25
    第三章 研究方法 27
    第一節 研究假說與相關變數選擇 29
    一、 社經因素 29
    二、 採用成本 30
    三、 採用效益 31
    四、 網路效應 31
    五、 資訊及不確定性 32
    六、 產業環境 32
    第二節 變數操作型定義與資料來源 37
    一、 社經因素 37
    二、 採用成本 37
    三、 採用效益 38
    四、 網路效應 38
    五、 資訊及不確定性 38
    六、 產業環境 39
    第三節 實證模型 43
    第四節 區分擴散階段之方法 46
    第五節 假說之檢定 50
    第四章 OECD及台灣固定寬頻擴散影響因素探討 51
    第一節 量化分析結果 51
    第二節 假說檢定與分析結果討論 61
    一、 社經因素 61
    二、 採用成本 62
    三、 採用效益 63
    四、 網路效應 63
    五、 資訊及不確定性 64
    六、 產業環境 65
    第三節 關鍵影響因素效應綜合比較與建議 68
    第四節 本章小結 77
    第五章 先進國家固定寬頻擴散影響因素實例探討 81
    第一節 背景說明 81
    第二節 擴散初期比較分析與討論 89
    第三節 擴散後期比較分析與討論 93
    第四節 本章小結 97
    第六章 新興寬頻服務擴散影響因素探討 101
    第一節 背景說明 101
    第二節 變數操作型定義與資料來源 104
    一、 社經因素 104
    二、 採用成本 104
    三、 採用效益 105
    四、 網路效應 105
    五、 資訊及不確定性 106
    六、 產業環境 106
    第三節 迴歸分析結果與討論 111
    一、 社經因素 113
    二、 採用成本 114
    三、 採用效益 114
    四、 網路效應 115
    五、 資訊及不確定性 115
    六、 產業環境 116
    第四節 本章小結 117
    第七章 結論與建議 121
    第一節 研究結論 121
    第二節 研究貢獻 123
    第三節 政策建議 124
    一、 有關促進固定寬頻擴散方面 124
    二、 有關擴散初期與後期台灣固定寬頻擴散之檢討 125
    三、 有關促進新興寬頻服務擴散方面 126
    第四節 研究限制 128
    一、 有關固定寬頻擴散影響因素分析 128
    二、 有關新興寬頻服務擴散影響因素分析 128
    第五節 未來研究方向建議 130
    一、 有關固定寬頻擴散影響因素分析 130
    二、 有關新興寬頻服務擴散影響因素分析 131
    附錄 133
    參考文獻 149
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    科技管理與智慧財產研究所
    96359502
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096359502
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 學位論文

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