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Title:	ECFA對兩岸三地的經濟、貿易和產業影響——基于全球貿易分析模型GTAP的分析
Authors:	張光南;陳坤銘;楊書菲
Contributors:	國際經營與貿易學系
Keywords:	ECFA;臺灣;GTAP
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2015-09-11 15:31:33 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	基于全球貿易分析GTAP模型及相關地區關稅校準,本文分析了《兩岸經濟合作架構協議》(ECFA)"早期收獲"和"全面實施"兩種降稅安排對兩岸三地的經貿影響。研究發現:短期內早期收獲計劃將對大陸的貿易余額和貿易條件產生負面沖擊,但長期動態條件下將顯著促進兩岸貿易、經濟增長和福利水平;ECFA全面實施的影響幅度大于早期收獲計劃;臺灣地區的改善幅度大于大陸,香港地區作為兩岸貿易中轉港的地位顯著減弱;ECFA對各產業影響存在差異。
Relation:	臺灣中華經濟研究院;,經濟學（季刊）第11卷第3期,2012
Data Type:	conference
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Business] Proceedings

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