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| Title: | 固定匯率下開放體系的信用管道 - CC-LM-BP模型再深化
CC-LM-BP Model With Fixed Exchange Rates |
| Authors: | 唐宗瑜
Tang, Tsung Yu |
| Contributors: | 林柏生
Lin, Bo Sheng
唐宗瑜
Tang, Tsung Yu |
| Keywords: | 信用管道
固定匯率
信用市場
開放體系下的信用管道
credit channel
fixed exchange rate
CC-LM
CC-LM-BP
IS-LM-BP
credit market |
| Date: | 2016 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-02-03 12:02:46 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文嘗試整合傳統IS-LM-BP模型與Bernanke的CC-LM模型，將信用管道加入並採用Spiegel開放模型設定，推導出固定匯率下開放體系的CC-LM-BP模型及其動態調整機制。
傳統的IS-LM-BP模型中，貸款與債券視為完全替代，當貨幣政策變動時僅有LM線移動，因此貨幣政策在固定匯率或是流動性陷阱時便會毫無用處；除此之外，種種外生變數變動在IS-LM-BP模型也具有明確效果。
而信用管道將貸款與債券視為不完全替代，因此多了信用市場。早期探討信用管道多為封閉體系(CC-LM模型)，當在封閉體系中加入信用管道後，貨幣供給改變時不僅LM線移動，CC線也會跟著移動，從而改變與原本IS-LM模型不同的結果，但總的來說尚可判斷出正負變動。
本文將此模型拓展為固定匯率開放體系下的CC-LM-BP模型，分別探討貨幣政策、財政政策、匯率及國外借貸利率變化等影響。當外生變數變動時，除了原有的LM線為維持固定匯率而有所調整外，CC線及BP線同時也會因信用效果跟著移動。此在貨幣政策的改變最為明顯，在IS-LM-BP模型中，固定匯率下的貨幣政策為無效，但在CC-LM-BP模型中由於三條線皆移動故政策為有效。相較於過往IS-LM-BP模型中只有LM線移動以達成均衡，參入信用管道下的CC-LM-BP模型動輒三條線同時變動，而這也讓外生變數改變後的利率等結果更難以預料。
This thesis analyzes the influence of various policies on a proposed CC-LM-BP model under fixed exchange rate and the assumptions from Spiegel’s open economy theory. Specifically, the policies include fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, foreign interest rate policy, and foreign bond rate policy.
The proposed CC-LM-BP model combines the traditional IS-LM-BP model and Bernanke’s CC-LM model. The traditional model uses the IS, LM, and BP curve to determine interest rate and output, while the CC-LM or CC-LM-BP model transform the IS curve into the CC curve by utilizing the credit channel mechanism. With the addition of the credit channel, traditional IS-LM-BP model treats bonds and loans as perfect substitutes, whereas the CC-LM-BP model treats bonds and loans as imperfect substitutes.
In the CC-LM-BP model, when there are changes present in the exogenous variables, not only the LM curve shifts to adjust fixed exchange rate system, but also the CC and BP curve shift due to the credit effect. On the other hand, for the traditional IS-LM-BP model, only the LM curve shifts due to changes in the exogenous variables. By comparing the two abovementioned models using various policies, the result is especially different when changes are presented in the monetary policy. For example, in the traditional IS-LM-BP model, the monetary policy has no effect under a fixed exchange rate system or liquidity trap, whereas the policy works in the CC-LM-BP model because all curves shift simultaneously. However, since there are more curves changing, i.e., higher uncertainties, in the CC-LM-BP model, the results from the CC-LM-BP model are more unpredictable compared to the IS-LM-BP model and are required to be analyzed case-by-case. |
| Reference: | B.S. Bernanke, (1981), Bankruptcy, Liquidity and Recession, American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp.155-159.
B. S. Bernanke, (1983),Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression, American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp.257-276.
B. S. Bernanke, & S.A. Blinder, (1988).Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand, American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 2, pp.435-439.
B. S. Bernanke, & S.A. Blinder,(1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp.901-921.
B. S. Bernanke, and M. Gertler(1995), Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No.4 pp.27-48.
M. Azali, (2014). The Transmission Mechanism and the Channels of Monetary Policy, Free Lecture Notes. Retrieved July 12, 2014, from http://econ.upm.edu.my/~azali/TM.pdf
M. M. Spiegel (1995), Sterilization of Capital Inflows through the Banking Sector: Evidence from Asia, FBRSF Economic Review.
P. Chiades, and L. Gambacorta (2004), The Bernanke and Blinder Model in an Open Economy: The Italian Case, German Economic Review, Vol.5, No.1, pp.1-34.
R. S. Rajan and I. Sugema (1999), Capital Flows, Credit Transmission and the Current Crisis in Southeast Asia. CIES Discussion Paper, No.99/25. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
101351033 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101351033 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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