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| Title: | 房價與少子化因果關係之研究-以台灣六大都市為例
A Study of The Lead-lag Relationship between Housing Price and Low Fertility Rate-The Case of Six Municipalities in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 黃虹荏
Huang, Hong Ren |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
黃虹荏
Huang, Hong Ren |
| Keywords: | 少子化
房價
共整合
時間序列
Granger因果關係
Low fertility rate
Housing price
Cointegration
Time Series
Granger Causality |
| Date: | 2016 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-02-03 12:18:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 台灣近年來正面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率（TotalFertilityRate）於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率（thelowest-lowfertility）之國家。許多人口學文獻指出，若低生育率長期持續，在社會自我強化的機制下，很可能會落入所謂的「低生育率的陷阱」(Low-fertilitytrap)中，此外，少子化的結果也會造成未來青壯年人口的減少，進而降低國家競爭力。
過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻僅以人口及社會的角度切入，較少以經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，生育成本（經濟因素）的多寡可能是導致少子化的主要因素，而家庭經濟組成中的房價更是占了極高之比重。有鑑於此，本研究綜合人口、社會及經濟的角度，運用追蹤資料(panel data)與時間序列資料，分別進行迴歸估計、共整合分析及Granger因果關係檢定，以檢視台灣六個都會區（台北市、新北市、新竹地區、台中市、台南市及高雄市）房價及少子化之關係。
研究結果發現，六大都會區之總生育率與實質國內生產毛額、國民可支配所得年增率呈正向關係；與失業率、房價指數 消費者物價指數、女性高等教育比呈負向關係：進一步分析各都市之現象，台北市、新北市、台南市、高雄市的房價與少子化間存在長期關係，其中，台北市與新北市存在房價領先生育率關係，在房價長期不合理上漲趨勢下，使生育率下降；而台南市與高雄市存在生育率領先房價關係，長期所得偏低且成長速度緩慢下，民眾選擇以降低生育，減少家庭支出成本累積購屋資金，導致生育率下降，房價上升之現象。本研究之成果顯示不同區域間房價與低生育率之相互關係，可提供政府未來制訂政策時有效參考。
Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Many demographic studies indicate that social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may become reversible once fertility has been very low for a certain period, and possibly cause the "low-fertility trap." Furthermore, falling fertility phenomenon will lead to fewer young adults in the future and deteriorate the country competition.
The phenomenon of overall fertility declines has sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them explore this issue from demographic and social perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the cost of childbearing might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore intends to integrate factors of demographics, sociology and economics to investigate the fertility rate by multiple regression analysis, and to explore the relationship of housing price and low fertility rate by cointegration and Granger Causality test. Finally, this study examines the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in 6 cities in Taiwan （Taipei City, New Taipei City, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City）.
Results of this study found that the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City. Housing price affect to fertility rate in Taipei City and New Taipei City. In the long run, the unreasonable trend in housing price leads to low fertility rate. Fertility rate affect to housing price in Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. The income will be stagnated and economic growth will be slow. In order to reduce the household costs, households choose to reduce fertility to cope with the high housing prices. Results of this study provide precious implications for policy decision making in the future. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
102257006 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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