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    题名: 中國大陸地方財政分權對地區房地產價格的影響
    其它题名: The Influence of Fiscal Decentralization on the Regional Real Estate Price Index in China
    作者: 黃智聰
    贡献者: 財政系
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2016-04-12 16:49:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 中國大陸在1994 年啟動的「分稅制」（tax sharing system）改革，雖加強了 中央政府的財力，卻也削弱了地方政府的財力。地方政府為了追求其自身的經濟 成長，或是要配合中央政府的經濟政策，必須要承擔大量的公共事務支出，導致 地方債務激增。大陸地方政府債務，主要依靠城市土地出讓金來填補財政空缺。 巨額的地方政府債務，使得地方政府更加依賴於土地出讓金收入，而迅速膨脹的 土地出讓行為，更進一步推動了城市房地產價格的上漲。由統計資料可知，自 1998 年至2010 年期間中國大陸房地產價格快速增長。在1998 年以後，商品房 平均銷售價格逐年攀升。在2003 年以前，全國商品房平均銷售價格還只是緩步 上揚，但自2004 年起，此一價格的快速攀升。雖然此一上升的趨勢在2008 年可 能因全球危機有稍微下降，但在2009 年商品房平均銷售價格卻又再一次上升， 較1998 年時的價格足足增長一倍以上。因此，本研究的主要目的在於探究，中 國大陸的地方財政分權究竟在其快速上升的房價中扮演何種角色。 本研究計畫之研究的重點如下： 1. 除了研究、整理與分析有關影響中國大陸產地產價格因素的相關文獻之外， 並盡可能建立一個理論模架構進行分析。 2. 建立實証模型架構，利用中國大陸31 個省、市、地區自2000 至2011 年的追 蹤資料，探究影響中國大陸產地產價格的決定因素。特別是，中國大陸的地 方財政分權對地方房地產價格的影響。 3. 進一步針利用動態追蹤資料門檻模型（Dynamic Panel Data Threshold Model），探討地方財政分權程度在高、低房地產價格地區對房地產價格的不 同影響。 4. 將研究結果提供給相關政府單位在擬定相關政策，與台商在大陸經營投資時 做為參考。
    Since 1994, “Tax Sharing Tax” policy has been implemented, this increases the fiscal capacity of central government on the one hand, but weakens fiscal capacity of local governments on the other hand. In order to pursue their economics growth and to be partially responsible for central government’s investment, local governments have a huge debt. For the purpose of reducing their debt, local governments become more to rely on local tax revenues, particularly rent of land lending, than they used to. This encourages local governments to manipulate the land rent and make the rent increase sharply, further push real estate price. According to China Statistical Yearbook, the real estate price increased dramatically during 1998-2010 in China. Since 1998, the real estate price has increased over years, except for 2008 due to Global Financial Crisis. Before 2003, the increasing pattern of real estate price was quite mild, but has become sharply since 2004. The real estate price of China in 2009 is twice as much as that in 1998. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explore the issue of what is the role of the degree of fiscal decentralization in the rising of regional real estate price in China. The key points of this project are as follows: 1 Review and summarize the existing studies regarding the issue of determinants of real estate price in China. In addition, this project attempts to construct a model to examine the primary issue of this project. 2. Constructing an empirical model and using provincial panel data of 31 provinces from 2000-2011 and two-way fixed-effect mode to investigate the determinants of real estate price in China, particularly, to understand the role of the degree of fiscal decentralization in the rising of regional real estate price in China. 3. Furthermore, using dynamic panel data threshold model to explore the different impact of the degree of fiscal decentralization on regions with high and low real estate prices. 4. Providing some policy implications to government as it makes policy regarding China and to Taiwanese business people as they make decision regarding their business in China.
    關聯: 計畫編號 NSC101-2410-H004-206
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[財政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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