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    Title: 房價與少子化間之雙向因果關係 --- 以全臺及六大都市為例
    Other Titles: The Two-Way Causality Relationship between House Prices and Low Fertility Rate in Taiwan
    Authors: 林左裕
    Contributors: 地政學系
    Keywords: 少子化;房價;複迴歸分析;共整合;因果關係;追蹤模型
    Low fertility rate;Housing price;Multiple regression;Cointegration;Granger Causality;Panel data
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2016-04-20 13:57:31 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台灣近年來正面臨決定性的人口轉型,並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶 政司的資料顯示,台灣之育齡婦女總生育率(Total Fertility Rate)於西元 2003 年 起皆低於 1.3 人,成為超低生育率(the lowest-low fertility)之國家。許多人口學 學者指出,若低生育率長期持續,在社會自我強化的機制下,很可能會落入所謂的「低 生育率的陷阱」(Low-fertility trap)中,此外,少子化的結果也會造成未來青壯年人 口的減少,進而降低國家競爭力。因此,政府目前已將少子化問題視為國家安全問題, 極力鼓吹國民正視此議題,同時以生育補貼鼓勵國民生育。 過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因,卻僅以人口及社會的角度切入,較少以經濟的觀 點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言,生育成本(經濟因素)的多寡可能是導致少子 化的主要因素,而家庭經濟組成中的房價更是占了極高之比重。有鑑於此,本研究綜合 人口、社會及經濟的角度,先應用複迴歸分析檢視影響少子化的因素,並運用共整合分 析及Granger因果關係檢定以了解房價與少子化之關聯性,最後檢視台灣六個都會區(台 北市、新北市、新竹地區、台中市、台南市及高雄市)的房價及少子化之關係。期藉研 究之實證成果,了解少子化之成因,並提出改善生育環境之方式,例如住宅政策上的調 整、稅負優惠、生育補貼等,提高台灣的生育率,進而調整人口結構,以提高國家競爭 力。
    Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Many demographic researchers indicate that social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may become reversible once fertility has been very low for a certain period, and possibly cause the "low-fertility trap." Furthermore, falling fertility phenomenon will lead to fewer young adults in the future and deteriorate the country competition. Therefore, the government of Taiwan has regarded the low fertility trend as a national security issue, and attempted to encourage fertility behavior by subsidy. The phenomenon of overall fertility declines has sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them explore this issue from demographic and social perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the cost of childbearing might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore intends to integrate factors of demographics, sociology and economics to investigate the fertility rate by multiple regression analysis, and to explore the relationship of housing price and low fertility rate by cointegration and Granger Causality test. Finally, this study examines the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in 6 cities in Taiwan (Taipei City, New Taipei City, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City). Results of this study may provide suggestions to the policy makers, and improve the environment for reproduction, such as the adjustment of housing policy, tax reduction, and fertility subsidy. In the long run, this study expect to propose policies to reshape the population structure gradually and increase the country’s competitiveness.
    Relation: 計畫編號 NSC 102-2410-H004-210
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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