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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/85888
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/85888


    Title: 模糊統計分析在選情預測之應用
    Analysis of Fuzzy Statistics in Application of Forcasting an Election Campaign
    Authors: 吳珮菁
    Wu, Pei-Ching
    Contributors: 鄭宇庭
    吳柏林

    吳珮菁
    Wu, Pei-Ching
    Keywords: 模糊統計
    最大隸屬度
    模糊權重
    Fuzzy statistics
    Maximum of membership
    Fuzzy weight
    Date: 1998
    Issue Date: 2016-04-21 09:54:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來,民意調查有廣泛使用在預測競選期間選情動向的趨勢,試將問卷設計為探討選民們投票理念與投票行為意圖,以預測選民投票意向。但現實社會裡,並不能以二元邏輯的觀念來劃分人類的思想理念與行為意圖,因為人類的思維、決策、行為中都包含模糊不確定性與非定量化的特質,即集合中元素的隸屬度假若是模糊不確定的,非完全屬於此集合又非完全不屬於此集合,則二元邏輯觀念可能無法詳盡地探訴事件本身所具代表的真相,將會扭曲它背後隱藏的因素意義,故欲應用多元邏輯更精確地描述人類不確定性的模糊特質。
    Public opinion survey has played an important role and has been utilized in forcasting an election campaign. Trying to get an unbiased and reliable forcast that best explain voters behavior, researchers have put a tremendous effort in designing the survey questions trying to capture the true essence of voters intention and action. In this paper, we apply logic of fuzzy theory to extract the voters inclination to vote for any candidate in the event of uncertainty surrounding the voters that may affect his or her voting decision.
    Reference: 吳柏林、楊文山 (1995) 模糊統計在社會調查分析的應用。社會科學計量
    方法發展與應用學術研討會。台北:中央研究院人文社會科學研究院。
    吳柏林 (1996) 社會科學研究中模擬邏輯與模糊統計分析。國立政治大學研 究通訊第七期。頁17-38。
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    梁世武 (1996) 民意調查一九九六年總統選舉預測。台北:華泰書局。
    梁世武、吳統雄、石崇賢等 (1995) 選舉預測:1994年台北市長選舉之研究。民意研究季刊,第192期,頁:12-49。
    陳義彥 (1982) 台北市選民投票行為之研究。台北:六國出版社。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    86354019
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001559
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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