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| Title: | 台灣地區總人口數之預測分析 |
| Authors: | 邱惟俊 |
| Contributors: | 鄭天澤
邱惟俊 |
| Keywords: | 介入模式
時間數列迴歸
轉換函數模式
指數平滑法
總人口數
育齡婦女總生育率
粗出生率
粗死亡率 |
| Date: | 1998 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-04-21 09:55:10 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 人口政策是政府的重要政策之一，而總人口數則是政府制定政治、經濟、社會及文化發展計畫之主要參考依據，因此如何準確地預測未來的總人口數就成為政府相關部門重要的課題。
In this thesis, we plan to construct various time series models for the total population in Taiwan. The following time series models are considered: ARIMA intervention model, time series regression model, transfers founction intervention model and exponential smoothing method. The input variable considered in the transfer function intervention model include total fertility rate, crude birth rate and crude death rate. We also compare the prediction performance of these models by using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square percentage error (RNSPE). It turns out that the transfer function intervention model with total fertility rate as input is the best model. While the transfer function intervention model with crude birth rate as input ranks the second best. Finally we forecast the total population of the next ten years by using the above two best models and compare with the middle population projection by Manpower Planning Department in Executive YUAN-Council for Economic Planning and Development. The mean absolute percentage error are 0.138% and 0.165% respectively. This result justifies that the time series model has excellent predictive ability and should be considered for total population prediction. |
| Reference: | 『參考文獻』
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
86354007 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001564 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
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