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    Title: 企業購併與總體經濟波動之研究 :非恆定性時間數列計量方法之研究
    Authors: 鄭旭凱
    Contributors: 陳坤銘
    鄭旭凱
    Keywords: 共積理論
    購併理論
    單根檢定
    恆定數列
    因果關係檢定
    誤差修正模型
    Cointegration
    Merger
    Unitroot test
    Stationary
    Granger- causality
    Error correction model
    Date: 1993
    Issue Date: 2016-04-29 16:43:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文利用晚近發展出來的單根檢定法以及共積檢定法,實証分析美、日兩國二次大戰以後企業購併與總體經濟變數間之關係。其實証方法與實証結果如下:運用ADF 檢定方法對購併、股價、國民生產毛額、利率,作單根檢定,發現美日兩國之購併、股價與國民生產毛額呈一階差分恆定狀態。
    Reference: 一.中文部份:
    1.蔡麗茹(1991) ,「非恆定總體時間數列計量方法之分析與應用」未出版之博士論文。
    2. 陳東江(1992) ,「時間數列之結構性變動與單根檢定之探討」未出版之碩士論文。
    3. 王泰允,企業購併實用,遠流出版社。
    二、英文部份
    1. Ashly, R., Granger, C. and Schmalensee, R.(1980) , "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica,48,1149-1167.
    2. Becketti, S. , "Corporate Mergers and the Business Cycle," Economic Revlew,13-26.
    3. Beckenstein, Alan R.(1979) ,Merger Activity and Merger Theories: An Empirical Investigation," Antitrust Bulletin, 24,105-128.
    4. Box, G.E.P., and Jekins, G M.(1976) , Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Con tori, San Francisco: Holden Day.
    5. Chen, K.M.(1991) , "The determinants of mergers: A comparative study of postwar merger activity in Japan and the United States, "Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation,
    The Johns Hopkins University.
    6. Caves, R.E. and Uekusa, M.(1976) , Industrial Organization in Japan, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
    7. Clark, John J.,Chakrabarti, Alok K., and Chiang, Thomas C.(1980) , "Stock Prices and Merger Movements: Interactive Relations," Journal of World Economics, 287-300.
    8. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A.(1979) , "Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Journal of American Statistical Association,74,427-431.
    9. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A.(1981) , "The Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica,49,1057-1072.
    10. Geroski, P.A.(1984) , "On the Relationship Between Aggregate Merger Activity and the Stock Market ," European Economic Review,25,223-233.
    11. Golbe, D.V. and White, L.J.(1988) , "A Time-Series Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions in the U.S. Economy, "in Allan J. Auerbach(ed.),Corporate Takeovers:
    Causes and Consequences, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,265-302.
    12. Gort, Michael(1969) , "An Economic Disturbance Theory of Mergers," Quarterly Journal of Economics,83,624-642.
    13. Granger, C. (1980) , "Testing for Causality: A Personal View," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,2,329- 352.
    14. Granger, C.(1981) , "Some Properties of Time Series Data And Their Use in Econometric Model Specification," journal of Econometrics,16,121-130. North-Holland publishing Company.
    15. Granger, C. (1986) , "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics And Statistics,48,3.
    16. Granger C. and Engle, R.F.(1987) , "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Vo1.55,N 0.2,251-276.
    17. Guerard, John B.,Jr.(1985) , "Mergers, Stock Prices, and Industrial Production: An Empirical Test of the Nelson Hypothesis" ,in O. D. Anderson, ed., Time Series
    Analysis: Theory and Practice, Amsterdam:Elsevier,239-47.
    18. Guerard, John B.,Jr.(1989) , "Mergers, Stock Prices, and Industrial Production: Further Evidence," Economics Letters,30,161-64.
    19. Hendry, D.F.(1986) , "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48,3.
    20. Jensen, Michael C., and Meckling, W.H.(1976) ,"Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure," journal of Financial
    Economics,3, 305-360.
    21. Jensen, Michael C. (1986) , "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, 76,323-329.
    22. Jensen, Michael C., and Murphy, Kevin J.(1990) , "Performance Pay and Top Management Incentives," Journal of Polictical Economy,98,225-263.
    23. Johansen, S. (1988) , "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Controi,12,231-254.North-Holland.
    24. Johansen, S.,& Katarina Juselius(1990) , "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration –With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford
    Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52,2.
    25. Melicher, R.,J. Ledolter & L.D` Antonio(1983) , "A Time Series Analysis of Aggregate Merger Activity," Review of Economics and Statistic,65, 423-29.
    26. Mueller, Dennis C.(1989) , "Mergers: Causes, Effects, and Policies," International Journal of Industrial Organization,7,1-10.
    27. Nelson, Ralph L. (1959) ,Merger Movements in American Industry, 1895-1956, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    28. Nelson, Ralph L.(1966) , "Business Cycle Factors in the Choice between Internal and External Growth," in William W. Alberts and Joel E. Segall(eds.) The Corporate
    Merger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 52-66.
    29. Said, S.E.& Dickey, D.A.(1984) , "Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order," Biometrika,599-608.
    30. Schwartz ,S.(1984) , "An Empirical Test of a Managerial, Life-Cycle, ,and Cost of Capital Model of Merger Activity," Journal of Industrial Economics,32,265-76.
    31. Shugert, W.F. and Tollison, R.D.(1984) , "The Random Character of Merger Activity," Rand Journal of Economics, 500-509.
    32. Sims, C.(1972) , "Money, Income and Causality," American Economic Review,62,540-553.
    33. Stigler, G.J.(1950) , "Monopoly and Oligopoly by Merger," The American Economic Review,40, 2
    34. Weston, J. Fred, Kwang S. Chung, Susan E. Huang , Mergers, restructuring, and corporate control ,Prentice Hall International Editions.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易學系
    G80351006
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004168
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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