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    题名: 時空數列分析在蔬菜價格變動與產銷策略之研究
    Spatial Time Series Analysis and it's Application : A Production- Marketing Strategy for the Vegetables Price
    作者: 譚光榮
    Tan, kuang Jung
    贡献者: 吳柏林
    Wu, Berlin
    譚光榮
    Tan, kuang Jung
    关键词: 時空數列
    STARMA模式
    自相關
    預測
    Weighting matrix
    STARMA model
    Autocorrelation
    Forecast
    日期: 1993
    上传时间: 2016-04-29 16:43:47 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 蔬菜的供給彈性非常小,收成之後,不僅產量會決定售價的高低,同類蔬菜之間的替代效果,對於價格變化也有很大的影響力。因此若能事先預測同類蔬菜未來的價格變化,即可計劃各類蔬菜的生產量。在本篇論文中,我們試著將時空數列應用在非空間系統的經濟領域上。以臺灣地區三種常見的蔬菜為例,分別以時空數列的 STARMA 模式與單變量 ARIMA 時間數列,利用蔬菜批發價格建立模式,並比較其短期預測效果。最後,就價格變動與產銷策略之關係進行討論。
    The supply elasticity of vegetables is so small. Once the production has been known, it would reflect on the price as soon as possible. And at the same time, the substitute effect between the vegetables has also great influence on the change of the price. However, if we could forecast the variation of the vegetables price,then the production-marketing strategy would be planned in advance. In this paper, we apply the spatial time series analysis on the field of economic, which is included in the non-spatial system. An investigate about the price variation for three kinds of vegetables in Taiwan.And the comparison of short-term forecasting performance for the STARMA model and traditional ARIMA model are also made. Finally, we discuss in detail about the relationship between the change of vegetable price and production-marketing strategy.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    G80354004
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004191
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[統計學系] 學位論文

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