数据加载中.....
|
请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94652
|
| 题名: | 「兩岸自由貿易區」經濟效益研究 |
| 作者: | 蔡欣茹 |
| 贡献者: | 陳坤銘
呂佳慧
蔡欣茹 |
| 关键词: | 商品貿易
服務業貿易
兩岸直航
進口限制
FTAP |
| 日期: | 2008 |
| 上传时间: | 2016-05-09 11:26:01 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究採用FTAP模型配合GTAP第6版資料庫，模擬分析兩岸組成自由貿易區對雙方總體經濟與各部門長期變動的影響。本文除了考慮商品部門和服務業貿易自由化以外，同時也加入兩岸直航和撤除台灣對大陸進口限制的討論。實證結果顯示，兩岸建立自由貿易協定對台灣有益。兩岸自由貿易區同時帶來台灣與大陸在進出口貿易量和國內生產毛額的提高。在社會福利方面，台灣社會福利每年增加74億美元，大陸則是每年減少24億美元。造成大陸利得下降的主要原因是其製造業部門的貿易條件惡化。就產業的長期影響來看，兩岸自由貿易區可使台灣和大陸淨出口金額上升，分別增加251.76億美元與292.92億美元，其中以台灣紡織業和化工產品的淨輸出為最高。農業貿易自由化和取消進口限制，導致台灣農產品在產出和淨出口金額上多半低於大陸。開放服務業市場以及直航帶來的大陸運輸量提高，顯示推動兩岸自由貿易區服務業廠商傾向於提高對大陸投資並減少在台灣的投資。
This paper adopts the FTAP model, a computable general equilibrium model, to analyze the long run economic effects of a cross-strait FTA on Taiwan and China. In addition to the liberalization of trade in goods and services, the direct cross-strait transportation and removing restrictions on imports from China are also discussed in this study. The simulation results reveal that the FTA of Taiwan and China might resilt in significant influences on both Taiwan and China. First, Taiwan and China have significant increases in their total volume of trade and GDP. Second, the social welfare of Taiwan increases $US74.64 billion, but the social welfare of China decreases $US24.42 billion because its TOT of manufacturing sector is worse off. In addition, the FTA makes the net export of Taiwan and China increase $US251.76 billion and $US292.92 billion, respectively. The manufacturing industries of Taiwan and China have the greatest increases in their net export, patticularly the textile and chemical products of Taiwan. Because of the liberalization in agriculture trade and removing restrictions on imports from China, the increase in agriculture output and net export of Taiwan is lower than those of China. Finally, the empirical results indicate that the liberalization of services trade and the direct cross-strait transportation attract services industries to raise their investment into China and decrease the investment in Taiwan. |
| 參考文獻: | 中文部分
中華經濟研究院，2002，《台灣與美國自由貿易協定經濟影響評估報告》，經濟部國際貿易局委託計畫。
中華經濟研究院，2004，《台灣與巴拉圭自由貿易協定經濟影響評估報告》，經濟部國際貿易局委託計畫。
中華經濟研究院，2005，《兩岸自由貿易協定之量化評估》，經濟部國貿局委託研究計畫。
中華經濟研究院，2007，《台美FTA效益分析與推動策略》，經濟部國際貿易局委託計畫。
王健全，2004，〈台灣產業發展之瓶頸與尋求突破的新思維〉，《經濟前瞻》，第95期，頁64-70。
王翔寧，2002，《中新自由貿易協定之效益評估》，台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
史惠慈，1999，〈解除大陸物品進口管制對兩岸貿易的衝擊〉，《經濟專論》193號，中華經濟研究院。
列嘉祺，2003，〈兩岸經貿發展：臺灣被邊緣化或整合〉，《展望與探索》，第1卷第3期，頁93-97。
林祖嘉，2003，〈兩岸經貿發展對臺灣產業調整之影響：產業升級與邊緣化之爭議〉，《國家政策論壇季刊》，秋季號，頁154-167。
林祖嘉，2004，〈台灣經濟發展與兩岸經貿依存度之研究〉，《大選後兩岸經貿事務研討會論文集》，頁1-10。
吳榮義，2005，〈從「經濟學人」台灣專文看兩岸經濟整合〉，台灣經濟研究院月刊，台經院產經資料庫。
吳佳勳、徐世勳(2004)，〈「臺紐自由貿易協定」的洽簽對臺﹑紐﹑澳經濟影響之一般均衡分析〉，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，第35卷第1期，頁1–39。
高孔廉，2002，〈兩岸經貿整合的起點-自由貿易區〉，《國家政策論壇》，第2卷第7期，頁26-44。
高長，2001，〈兩岸加入WTO後產業可能的互動與競爭力變化〉，《經濟情勢暨評論季刊》，第7卷第3期，頁1-20。
郭迺鋒、周濟、方文秀、陳美琇，2005，〈東亞經濟整合對臺灣經濟的影響：2005年至2010年遞迴動態GTAP模型〉，《經濟情勢暨評論》，第10卷第4期，頁1-41。
陳坤銘，2001，〈GTAP模型結構〉。
黃兆仁，2004，〈以台灣－菲律賓與菲律賓－日本分別簽訂FTA為二個虛擬案例來分析二者對台灣的經貿影響〉，發表於第三十一屆台日「中國大陸問題」研討會。
童振源，2006，〈東亞經濟整合與台灣的戰略〉，《問題與研究》，第45卷第2期，頁25-60。
童振源，2003，〈兩岸經濟整合與台灣的國家安全顧慮〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第4卷第3期，頁41-58。
滕人傑，2004，〈兩岸經貿互動對國內製造業就業市場之影響〉，《台灣經濟研究月刊》，第27卷第8期，頁27-33。
英文部分
Amjadi, A. and L.A. Winters, 1997, “Transport Costs and `Natural` Integration in MERCOSUR,” World Bank Working Paper No 1742.
Bora, B. and Guisinger, S., 1997, “Impact of investment liberalisation in APEC,” School of Economics, Flinders University, mimeo.
Brown, D.K., A.V. Deardorff, A.K. Fox, and R.M. Stern, 1995, “Computational analysis of goods and services liberalization in the Uruguay Round,” in W. Martin and L.A. Winters, eds., The Uruguay Round and the developing economies, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 365-80.
Brown, D.K., A.V., Deardorff, A.K. Fox, and, R.M. Stern, 1996, “The Liberalization of Services Trade: Potential Impacts in the Aftermath of the Uruguay Round,” in W. Martin and L.A. Winters, eds., The Uruguay Round and the Developing Economies, Cambridge University Press, 292-315.
Brown, D.K., A.V. Deardorff, and R.M. Stern, 1996, “Modeling multilateral trade liberalization in services,” Asia Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 2(1), 21-34.
Caves, R., 1974, “The Economics of Reciprocity: Theory and Evidence on Bilateral Trading Arrangements,” in Sellekaerts, W., eds., International Trade and Finance: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen, 17-54.
Chou, J., S.T. Wang, K.M. Chen, and N.F. Kuo, 2003, “Taiwan`s Accession into the WTO and Trade in Services: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” in Takatoshi I. and A.O. Krueger, eds., Trade in Services in the Asia-Pacific Region, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Vol. 11, 99-136.
Corden, W.M., 1972, “Economies of Scale and Customs Union Theory,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 80, No. 3, 465-475.
Dee, P., C. Geisler, and G., Watts, 1996, “The Impact of APEC’s Free Trade Commitment,” Industry Commission Staff Information Paper, Canberra.
Dee, P. and K. Hanslow, 2000, “Multilateral Liberalisation of Services Trade,” in Stern, R., eds., Services in the International Economy, University of Michigan Press, 117–39.
Dee P., A. Hardin and L. Holmes, 2000, “Issues in the application of CGE models to services trade liberalization,” in C. Findlay and T. Warren, eds., Impediments to Trade in Services: Measurement and Policy Implications, New York: Routledge.
Donovan, D. and Y.H. Mai, 1996, “APEC trade liberalisation: the impact of increased capital mobility,” Australian Commodities, Vol. 3, No. 4, 520–526.
Ethier, Wilfred J. and Henrik Horn, 1991, “Services in international Trade,” in Elhanan Helpman and Assaf Razin, eds., International Trade and Trade Policy, 223-244.
Francois, J.F., 1999, “A Gravity Approach to Measuring Services Protection,” Unpublished manuscript, Erasmus University, Rotterdam.
Francois, J.F., and B. Hoekman, 1999, “Market Access in the Service Sectors,” manuscript, Tinbergen Institute.
Francois, J.F., B. McDonald, and H. Nordstrom, 1996, “The Uruguay Round: A Numerically Based Qualitative Assessment,” in Martin, W. and Winters, L.A., eds., The Uruguay Round and the Developing Economies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York and Melbourne, 253-91.
Gilbert, J., 2003, “CGE Simulation of US Bilateral Free Trade Agreements,” Background paper prepared for the conference Free Trade Agreements and US Trade Policy, sponsored by the Institute for International Economics.
Gonenc, R. and G. Nicoletti, 2000, “Regulation, Market Structure and Performance in Air Passenger Transport,” Working Paper No. 254, Economics Department, OECD.
Hanslow, K., T. Phamduc, and G. Verikios, 1999, “The structure of the FTAP model,” Research Memorandum No. 58, Productivity Commission.
Hertel, T.W., 1997, “Structure of GTAP,” in Hertel, T. W., eds., Global trade analysis: modeling and applications, Cambridge University Press, 13-73.
Hertel, T.W., 1999, “Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services, and agriculture,” Paper presented at the 24th Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Hertel, T.W., W. Terrie, and I. Ken, 2001, “Dynamic Effects of the New Age Free Trade Agreement between Japan and Singapore,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 24(8), 1019-1049.
Hoekman, B., 1995, “Assessing the General Agreement on Trade in Services,” in Will Martin and L. Alan Winters (eds.), The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries, World Bank Discussion Paper No. 307.
Hong, H., 2003, “The Economic Consequence of Excluded Country by PTAs/FTAs,” Taiwan Economic Forum, 43-78.
Kang, J., 2000, “Price impact of restrictions on maritime transport services,” in Findlay, C. and Warren, T., eds., Impediments to Trade in Services: Measurement and Policy Implications, Routledge.
Kalirajan, K., G. McGuire, Duc Nguyen-Hong and Michael Schuele, 2000, “The Price Impact of Restrictions on Banking Services,” in C. Findlay and T. Warren, eds., Impediments to Trade in Services: Measurement and Policy Implications, New York: Routledge.
Kawasaki K., 2003, “The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in Asia,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-E-018.
Kemp, M.C., 1969, “A Contribution to the General Equilibrium Theory of Preferential Trading,” Amsterdam: North Holland.
Kenichi, K., 2003, “The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in Asia,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-E-018.
Lardy, N.R. and D.H. Rosen, 2004, “US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement Prospects,” in Schott, J., eds., Free Trade Agreements: US Strategies and Priorities, Institute for International Economics.
Ma, J. and Z. Wang, 2002, “Options and Implications of Free Trade Arrangements in Asia after China enter the WTO,” presented at the 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Taipei.
Markusen, J.R., T.F. Rutherford, and L. Hunter, 1995, “Trade liberalisation in a multinational dominated industry,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 38(1–2), 95–117.
Markusen, J.R., T.F. Rutherford, and D. Tarr, 1999, “Foreign direct investment in services and the domestic market for expertise,” paper presented at Second Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Denmark.
McDougall, R., 1993, “Incorporating international capital mobility into SALTER,” SALTER Working Paper No. 21, Industry Commission, Canberra.
McKibbin, W.J., and P.J. Wilcoxen, 1996, “The role of services in modeling the global economy,” Asia Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, 3–13.
Meade, J.E., 1955, “The Theory of Customs Unions,” Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Smith, A. and A. Venables, 1988, “Completing the Internal Market in the EC: Some Industry Simulations,” European Economic Review, Vol. 32, 1501-1525.
Petri, P.A., 1997, “Foreign direct investmet in a computable general equilibrium framework,” Paper prepared for the conference on Making APEC Work: Economic Challenges and Policy Alternatives, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.
Verikios, G. and K. Hanslow, 1999, “Modelling the effects of implementing the Uruguay Round: A comparison using the GTAP model under alternative treatments of international capital mobility,” paper presented at Second Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Denmark.
Verikios, G. and X.G. Zhang, 2001, “Global Gains from Liberalising Trade in Telecommunications and Financial Services,” Productivity Commission Staff Research Paper, AusInfo, Canberra.
Viner J., 1950, “The Customs Union Issue,” New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Wang, Z. and E.G. Schuh, 2002, “The Emergence of a Greater China and Its Impact on World Trade: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis,” Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 30(3), 531-66.
Warren, T., 2000, “The identification of impediments to trade and investment in telecommunications services,” in C. Findlay and T. Warren, eds., Impediments to Trade in Services: Measurement and Policy Implications, New York: Routledge. |
| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
94351027 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351027 |
| 数据类型: | thesis |
| 显示于类别: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
|
文件中的档案:
| 档案 |
大小 | 格式 | 浏览次数 |
|---|
| index.html | 0Kb | HTML2 | 271 | 检视/开启 |
|
在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.
|
