政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/94786

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/94786

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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Executive Master of Business Administration > Theses > Item 140.119/94786

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94786

Title:	半導體晶圓廠投資策略與預測
Authors:	莊坤榮
Contributors:	郭炳伸莊坤榮
Keywords:	半導體晶圓代工產能利用率預測銷售額成長率銷售價資本支出輕晶圓廠無晶圓廠銷售量迴歸分析 BB值價格腐蝕投資策略供應鍊 semiconductor foundry utilization forecast revenue growth rate ASP Capax fab-lite fab-less Sales quantity regression anaysis BB ratio Price erosion investment stretagy supply chain
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2016-05-09 11:53:32 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在全球持續電子化的過程中，台灣一路扮演著落實有效製造與實現設計的推手，無論從主機板、被動元件、面板、晶片設計、晶圓製造以及封裝甚至高精密組裝無所不包，在如此資本密集產業，如何操作才能達到供需平衡，為整體產業經濟創造出良性的競爭平台，避免惡性競爭，就成了不可輕忽的課題。本文以晶圓產業為探討對象。全球產能平均利用率多年來總維持於中檔 (88%)，且平均銷售單價只能緩降而無強勢反彈，近年企業無不減少資本支出來度過低潮，整合元件製造廠(IDM)相繼喊出工廠資產輕化(fab-lite)的營運策略，這時我們的命題即是：要不要繼續投資？如何調整價值鏈？本研究中，我們會先檢視目前市場對半導體成長預測的準確度，再經由產業價值活動代表性指標回歸分析法對相關參數做一整合之解析，對晶圓需求量與銷售價建立配適之模型，找出先行指標來達到預測，並定義上下限以供快速比對分析，最後再根據分析結果提出可能之產業趨勢議題。 This thesis analyzes the semiconductor industry growth worldwide. The leading index via regressions has been established to achieve a reliable forecast on worldwide ASP, wafer demand and revenue. In the long run, we expect the semiconductor demand will continue to grow at CAGR 8% (compound annual growth rate) and display less extreme cycles than past decade. However, revenue’s CAGR might be diluted to around 5%, lower than demand’s growth. Moreover, it might go down to zero-growth for some times since the ASP still slightly trend down before emerging market demand really expanded. Continuous outsourcing is one possible solution for IDM to be fab-lite, since fab’s fix charge is billion- base that needs high utilization to maintain break-even operation. But what is the solution for foundry side to avoid ASP erosion all the way down? Our analysis identifies a need for executive managers to well predict the demand on capital expenditure when making decision. 內　容頁次致謝詞 ……………………………………………………………………… 1 中文摘要 …………………………………………………………………… 2 Abstract ………………………………………………………………… 3 目錄 ………………………………………………………………………… 5 表目錄 ……………………………………………………………………… 6 圖目錄 ……………………………………………………………………… 7 第一章緒論 …………………………………………………………… 9 第1節矽屏障的台灣 ………………………………………………… 9 第2節研究動機與目的 ……………………………………………… 11 第二章近況回顧 …………………………………………………… 13 第1節 IDM釋單 ………………………………………………………… 14 第2節經濟指標 ……………………………………………………… 15 第3節常用半導體相關指標 …………………………………………… 17 第三章研究方法與架構 ………………………………………………… 20 第1節市場預測 ……………………………………………………… 21 第2節相關指標搜尋 …………………………………………………… 23 第3節初步分析結論 …………………………………………………… 27 第四章變數模型建立與分析 …………………………………………… 28 第1節先行指標分析 ………………………………………………… 29 第2節模型建立………………………………………………………… 30 第3節比對分析………………………………………………………… 37 第五章結論 …………………………………………………………… 40 第1節目的驗證 ……………………………………………………… 40 第2節議題與建議 ………………………………………………… 41 第3節未來的經營問題 …………………………………………… 43 參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………… 44
Reference:	一、中文部分 1. 廖思善，2005，布朗運動與自發性圖案，物理雙月刊27卷3期。 2. 陳昌雄，2004，出席經濟指標與景氣循環研討會議報告，行政院主計處。 3. 王博立，2005，年度半導體產業投資展望，建華投顧。 4. Porter, Michael E，1999年，競爭優勢(Competitive Advantage)，天下遠見出版社。 5. 彼得.聖吉，1994，第五項修練，天下文化。 6. 邱志聖，2006，策略行銷分析─架構與實務運用，智勝文化。 7. 司徒達賢，2001，策略管理新論─觀念架構與分析方法，智勝文化。二、外文部分 1. Craig Addison, 2001, Silicon shield: Taiwan’s Protection Against Chinese Attack, Lightning Source Inc. 2. Quinn JB & Hilmer FG, 1994, Strategic outsourcing, Sloan Management Review. 3. SICAS, 2007, Semiconductor wafer-fab capacity and utilization, Statistics report of 1st Quarter. 4. W.J. Sanders, 2002, 25th Anniversary Forecast, SIA 5. Richard D. Skinner, 2007, Global wafer capacity analysis and forecast 2006-2011, IC Insights, Inc. 6. Trevor Yancey, 2004, Semiconductor market mid-year forecast, GBC Summer Conference, IC Insights, Inc. 7. Nigel Gault, 2007, The environment for U.S. aviation, Economy, 32nd FAA Aviation Forecast Conference, Global Insight. Inc. 8. Glen Yeung, Peter Karazeris, 2007, Industry focus: Semiconductor reports, North America Semiconductor Citi. 9. Sheng-Cheng Hu, 2006, Taiwan’s economy and the role of a U.S-Taiwan FTA, Taiwan Economic Forum. Vol. 4, No. 12. 10. Kotler, Philip, 1997, Marketing Management-Analysis, Planning, Implication. Prentice Hall. 11. Simon, H, 1957, A Study of Decision-making Process in Administrative Organizations, New York: Macmillan. 12. Weiss, N. A, 2007 7th edition, Introductory statistics, Boston. 13. Porter, Michael, March 1979, How competitive forces shape strategy, Harvard business Review. 14. Andre Kostolany, 2000, Die Kunst über Geld nachzudenken, Econ.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學經營管理碩士學程(EMBA) 94932008
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094932008
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Business Administration] Theses

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