近年來，臺灣教育改革的訴求已普遍的衝擊到各級學校。一向廣為人們所詬病的 高中、高職教育比例之規劃，也面臨了需要調整的壓力。高中、高職學生的結構比例應如何 安排？這些安排的策略會對原有的系統產生什麼樣的影響？本文嘗試以一些數量發展的預測 模式，結合社會大眾對高級中等教育改變的預期，對未來可能學生人數做一策略性的規劃， 並針對高級中等教育之重組以及可能面臨的師資需求問題提出探討。 During these years, it is that the calling for education reform has been swept through the schools in Taiwan, People criticize the malfunction of the strategy planning for the senior high schools and senior high vocation schools. Under this circumstance, the policy makers face the pressures to rethinking the old strategy. How to set a reasonable ratio to balance the two different schools? What kind of conflict will the new strategy impact on the education system? In this paper, the author considered the people's expectations and tried to use the quantitative forecasting models to find the total student number of high schools in the future. Using these figures, the author proposed a new strategy to reorganize the senior high schools and to deal with the the supply and demand of teachers.
教育與心理研究, 18,225-248 Journal of Education & Psychology