政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/99553

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/99553

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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of MIS > Theses > Item 140.119/99553

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99553

Title:	基於時間序列下的動態需求之資源模擬 - 使用等候模型 Simulating Time-Varying Demand Services with Queuing Models
Authors:	褚宣凱 Chu, Hsuan Kai
Contributors:	蔡瑞煌郁方 Tsaih, Rua Huan Yu, Fang 褚宣凱 Chu, Hsuan Kai
Keywords:	到達率估計服務資源配置隨時間序列改變之需求服務模擬 Arrival Rate Estimation Service Simulation Time-varying Demands Resource Provision
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2016-08-02 17:02:27 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在服務資源需求量會隨時間而改變的情況下，系統的服務資源供給對致力於提供高服務品質的資源提供者來說是一個重要的議題。在服務資源可以迅速的部署和解除的假設下，像是以雲端運算為基礎之服務，本研究提供了系統性的估算服務資源方法，本方法之結構是以模擬為基礎並結合了非監督式學習、顧客到達率之估計以及統計技術。首先，本研究將每一日之顧客到達率進行分群運算並將具有類似顧客到達模式的日期分為一群，且每一群之包含日期具備可解釋之代表性；下一階段使用兩階段式的忙碌因子模型去建立每一群的顧客到達率模型，並估計該群的多區間普瓦松分布來做為系統模擬隨機過程所需之參數；最後應用了等候模型理論去設計系統模擬方法，模擬出顧客在系統中到達並接受服務的隨機過程，其結果包含觀察出顧客在系統中的等待時間和排隊長度以及所需之服務資源，並提供在不同的服務策略情形下之表現。本研究使用了一個來自電力公司客服中心之進線量資料進行本方法之實驗，展示出如何使用本方法建立一個能滿足服務水準要求的服務資源配置策略，也和該公司過去之配置策略進行比較，並提出實質上如何提升服務品質的配置策略之建議。
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學資訊管理學系 103356041
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103356041
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of MIS] Theses

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