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    题名: Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC’s New Economic Projections
    作者: 荒井夏來
    Natsuki Arai
    贡献者: 國貿系
    关键词: FOMC;economic projections;forecast revisions;forecast efficiency;information rigidity.
    日期: 2016-08
    上传时间: 2016-08-22 16:39:13 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers have
    been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series
    over the next 3 years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections
    are unpredictable, I find that FOMC’s efficiency is generally accepted for
    inflation but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the
    unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of
    revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC’s unemployment
    projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most
    cases.
    關聯: Jounal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.48, No.5, pp.1019-1049
    数据类型: article
    显示于类别:[科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 期刊論文

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