政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/100752

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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/100752

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题名:	A comparison of alternative models for estimating firm’s growth rate
作者:	陳鴻毅 Brick, Ivan E.;Chen, Hong-Yi;Hsieh, Chai-Hsun;Lee, Cheng-Few
贡献者:	財管系
关键词:	Equity valuation;Estimation of growth rate;Gordon’s growth model;Determinants of growth forecast errors
日期:	2016-08
上传时间:	2016-08-25 14:40:54 (UTC+8)
摘要:	The growth rate plays an important role in determining a firm’s asset and equity values, nevertheless the basic assumptions of the growth rate estimation model are less well understood. In this paper, we demonstrate that the model makes strong assumptions regarding the financing mix of the firm. In addition, we discuss various methods to estimate firms’ growth rate, including arithmetic average method, geometric average method, compound-sum method, continuous regression method, discrete regression method, and inferred method. We demonstrate that the arithmetic average method is very sensitive to extreme observations, and the regression methods yield similar but somewhat smaller estimates of the growth rate compared to the compound-sum method. Interestingly, the ex-post forecast shows that arithmetic average method (compound-sum method) yields the best (worst) performance with respect to estimating firm’s future dividend growth rate. Firm characteristics, like size, book-to-market ratio, and systematic risk, have significant influence on the forecast errors of dividend and sales growth rate estimation.
關聯:	Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 47(2), 369-393
数据类型:	article
DOI 連結:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11156-015-0504-6
DOI:	10.1007/s11156-015-0504-6
显示于类别:	[財務管理學系] 期刊論文

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