政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/104570
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 109952/140887 (78%)
Visitors : 46285559      Online Users : 757
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104570


    Title: 最適通貨區域理論與滙率制度的選擇
    Authors: 陳琬如
    Contributors: 滑明曙
    陳琬如
    Date: 1985
    Issue Date: 2016-12-05 17:17:22 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 第一章 緒論1
    第一節 研究動機與目的1
    第二節 研究方法3
    第三節 本文架構5
    第二章 最適通貨區域理論的檢閱6
    第一節 最適通貨區域理論的淵源6
    第二節 最適通貨區域理論的內容7
    第三章 最適通貨區域理論實證的檢閱23
    第一節 鑑別分析法 ( Discriminant Analysis ) 24
    第二節 Normit模型 ( Probit Analysis Model ) 30
    第三節 線性機率模型及Logit模型31
    第四節 迴歸分析法34
    第五節 本章結論36
    第四章 實證模型與實證方法42
    第一節 實證分析模型的建立43
    第二節 實證方法的說明54
    第三節 變數測定方法與資料來源70
    第五章 實證結果分析79
    第一節 最適通貨區域理論與固定及浮動滙率制度選擇的實證結果79
    第二節 最適通貨區域理論與不同浮動程度滙率制度選擇的實證結果111
    第三節 「蛇行浮動」、「蠕動」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」滙率制度的歸屬141
    第四節 我國滙率制度歸類的實證分析157
    第六章 結論與建議175
    第一節 結論175
    第二節 後續研究之建議181
    參考書目182
    附表191
    圖表目錄
    表 3 - 1 最適通貨區域理論之實證檢閱37
    表 4 - 1 最適通貨區域理論的檢閱45
    表 5 - 1 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（固定滙率制度與浮動滙率制度）80
    表 5 - 1 - 2 檢驗世界的滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果81
    表 5 - 1 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度的對應關係（以輸出總額佔GDP之比率衡量開放程度、外滙資產佔M1之比率衡量金融整合度）87
    表 5 - 1 - 4 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度的對應關係（以輸入總額佔GDP之比率衡量開放程度、國際收支帳設限衡量金融整合度）90
    表 5 - 2 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（剔除「蛇行浮動」與「蠕動」）94
    表 5 - 2 - 2 檢驗世界的滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（剔除「蛇行浮動」與「蠕動」）95
    表 5 - 2 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度的對應關係（剔除「蛇行浮動」與「蠕動」，以輸入總額佔GDP之比率衡量開放程度、國際收支帳設限衡量金融整合度）100
    表 5 - 3 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「管理浮動」與「自由浮動」構成浮動滙率制度）103
    表 5 - 3 - 2 檢驗世界的滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「管理浮動」與「自由浮動」構成浮動滙率制度）104
    表 5 - 3 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度的對應關係（「管理浮動」與「自由浮動」構成浮動滙率制度，以輸入總額佔GDP之比率衡量開放程度、國際收支帳設限衡量金融整合度）109
    表 5 - 4 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住美元」與「管理浮動」）113
    表 5 - 4 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住美元」與「管理浮動」）114
    表 5 - 4 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度（「釘住美元」）的對應關係116
    表 5 - 5 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住美元」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）117
    表 5 - 5 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住美元」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）118
    表 5 - 6 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住通貨籃」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）120
    表 5 - 6 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住通貨籃」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）121
    表 5 - 7 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住通貨籃」與「管理浮動」）124
    表 5 - 7 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住通貨籃」與「管理浮動」）125
    表 5 - 7 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度（「釘住通貨籃」）的對應關係127
    表 5 - 8 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住單一貨幣」與「管理浮動」）129
    表 5 - 8 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住單一貨幣」與「管理浮動」）130
    表 5 - 8 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度（「釘住單一貨幣」）的對應關係（由表5 - 8 - 2實證結果歸納而得）132
    表 5 - 9 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住單一貨幣」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）133
    表 5 - 9 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住單一貨幣」與「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」）134
    表 5 - 10 - 1 檢驗是否有高度線性重合現象（「釘住單一貨幣」與「浮動」）137
    表 5 - 10 - 2 檢驗不同浮動程度滙率制度是否遵循最適通貨區域理論的實證結果（「釘住單一貨幣」與「浮動」）138
    表 5 - 10 - 3 檢驗經濟特質與固定滙率制度（「釘住單一貨幣」）的對應關係（由表5 - 10 - 2實證結果歸納而得）140
    表 5 - 11 - 1 檢驗「蛇行浮動」與「蠕動」國家的滙率制度（表5 - 2 - 2實證結果之應用）143
    表 5 - 11 - 2 檢驗「蛇行浮動」與「蠕動」國家的滙率制度（表5 - 3 - 2實證結果之應用）147
    表 5 - 12 檢驗「浮動但對一種貨幣有限浮動」國家的滙率制度（表5 - 3 - 2實證結果之應用）153
    表 5 - 13 檢驗我國台灣地區的滙率制度159
    圖 5 - 1 我國之經濟開放程度與不同滙率制度中心值的比較（表5 - 1 - 2實證結果之應用）162
    圖 5 - 2 我國的金融整合度與不同滙率制度中心值之比較（表5 - 1 - 2實證結果之應用）163
    圖 5 - 3 我國貿易地理集中度與不同滙率制度中心值之比較（表5 - 1 - 2實證結果之應用）164
    圖 5 - 4 我國各項經濟特質與不同滙率制度中心值之比較（表5 - 1 - 2實證結果之應用）166
    圖 5 - 5 我國各項經濟特質與不同滙率制度中心值之比較（表5 - 2 - 2實證結果之應用）168
    圖 5 - 6 我國各項經濟特質與不同滙率制度中心值之比較（表5 - 3 - 2實證結果之應用）170
    附表1 世界各國滙率制度一覽表191
    附表2 資料之定義與來源192
    Reference: 一、中文部分：
    1.李庸三著，經濟計量方法，臺北：三民書局，民國六十八年再版。
    2.柳復起著，現代國際金融，臺北：三民書局，民國七十三年初版。
    3.黃俊英著，多變量分析，臺北：華泰書局，民國七十四年初版。
    4.滑明曙著：「最適通貨區域論、鑑別分析與台灣滙率制度的選擇」，貨幣市場簡訊30期，臺北：國際票券金融股份有限公司，民國七十三年十一月。
    5.滑明曙，林柏生合著，「當前台灣最適滙率制度的選擇－最適通貨區域理論方法之應用」，民國七十三年十二月。
    二、英文部分：
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey." Journal of Economic Literature 19 (December 1981) : 1483-1536.
    7. Argy, Victor. The Postwar International Money Crisis: An Analysis. 1981.
    8. Aschheim, Joseph, and Y. S. Park. "Artificial Currency Units: The Formation of Functional Currency Areas." Essays in International Finance No.114, Princeton, N.J., 1976.
    9. Balassa, Bela. The Theory of Economic Integration. Homewood, Ill., Irwin, 1962.
    10. _________. "Comment (on Laffer) ." in Johnson and Swoboda. ed. (1973), pp. 40-45.
    11. Balogh, T. "Problems of Western Unification." Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Statistics 12 ( October 1950) : 299-314.
    12. Bear, D. V. T. "A Note on Measuring the Openness of an Economy." Review of Economics and Statistics 48 (February 1966) : 100-101.
    13. Bird, Graham. The International Monetary System and the Less Developed Countries. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1978.
    14. Black, Stanley W. Floating Exchange Rates and National Economic Policy. New Havan: Yale University Press, 1977.
    15. Corden, W. M. "Monetary Integration. " Essays in International Finance No. 93, Princeton, N. J., 1972.
    16.________. "The Adjustment Problem." European Monetary Unification and Its Meaning for the United States. edited by Lawrence B. Krause and Walter S. Salant (The Brookings Institution, Washington, 1973), pp. 159-184.
    17. Dreyer, Jacob S. "Determinants of Exchange-Rate Regimes for Currencies of Developing Countries." paper presented at the 1976 meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, Atlantic City, N. J., 1976.
    18. Fisher, R. A. "The Use of Multiple Measurement in Taxonomic Problems." Annals of Eugenics 7 (1936): 179-188.
    19. Flanders, M. June. "Comment: The Currency Area Problem." in Mundell and Swoboda. ed. (1969), pp.101-105.
    20. Fleming, J. Marcus. "Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates." Staff Papers 9 (November 1962): 369-380.
    21. _______. "On Exchange Rate Unification." Economic Journal 81 (September 1971) : 467-488.
    22. Friedman, Milton. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953.
    23. Giersch, Herbert. "Entrepreneurial Risk under Flexible Exchange Rates." in Halm. ed. (1970), pp.145-150.
    24. _______ . "On the Desirable Degree of Flexibility of Exchange Rates." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 109 (Heft 2 1973): 191-213.
    25. Goldberger, A. S. Econometric Theory. New York: Wiley, 1964.
    26. Green Paul E. Analyzing Multivariate: DATA. 1979.
    27. Grubel, Herbert G. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas." Canadian Journal of Economics 3 (May 1970): 318-323.
    28. Haberler, Gottfried. "The International Monetary System: Some Recent Developments and Discussions." in Halm. ed. ( 1970 ), pp. 115-123.
    29. Halm, George. ed. Approaches to Greater Flexibility of Exchange Rates : The Bürgenstock Papers. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970.
    30. Hawkins, Robert G. and C. Rangarajan. "On the Distribution of New International Reserves." Journal of Finance 25 (September 1970): 881-891.
    31. Heller, H. Robert. "Optimal International Reserves." Economic Journal 76 (June 1966): 296-331.
    32.________ . "Choosing an Exchange Rate System: Theory and Practice." IMF Department Memo, 104, 1976.
    33. _________ ." Choosing an Exchange Rate System." Finance and Development 14 (June 1977): 23-26.
    34.________."Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices. " Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 10 (Aug. 1978): 306-321.
    35. Hirsch, Fred. "European Monetary Union: A Rebuttal." The Banker 122 (November 1972): 1377-1379.
    36. Holden, Paul. "The Demand for International Reserves and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: an Empirical Analysis." Ph.D. dissertation, Duke University, 1976.
    37. Holden, Paul., and Merle Holden. "The Classification of Exchange Rate Policies: A Multivariate Analysis." DM/76/110, International Monetary Fund, 1976.
    38. Holden, Paul., and Esther C. Suss. "A Note on the Classification of Exchange Rate Policies." DM/77/78, International Monetary Fund, 1977.
    39. Holden, Paul., Merle Holden and Esther C. Suss. " The Determinants of Exchange-Rate Flexibility : An Empirical Investigation ."The Review of Economics and Statistics 61 (August 1979): 327-333.
    40. Ingram, James C. Regional Payments Mechanisms: The Case of Puerto Rico. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1962.
    41.________ . "Comment: The Currency Area Problem." in Mundell and Swoboda. ed. (1969), pp.95-100.
    42. ________. "The Case for European Monetary Integration ." Essays in International Finance No. 98, Princeton, N.J., 1973.
    43. Ishiyama, Yoshide. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: A Survey." IMF Staff Papers 22 (July 1975): 344-383.
    44. Johnson, Harry G., and A. K. Swoboda. ed. The Economics of Common Currencies. London: Allen and Unwin, 1973.
    45. Johnson Richard A., Dean Wichern. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis. 1984.
    46. Judge George G., William E., Griffiths, R. Carter Hill, and Tsoung-Chao Lee. The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. 1981.
    47. Kenen, Peter B. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View." in Mundell and Swoboda. ed. (1969), pp.41-60.
    48. _________. "Capital Mobility and Financial Integration: a Survey." Studies in International Finance No. 39, Princeton University, International Finance Section, 1976.
    49. Kreinin, Mordechai E., and H. Robert Heller. "Adjustment Costs, Optimal Currency Areas, and International Reserves." Chap. 6 in Willy Sellekaerts. ed. International Trade and Finance: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen. White Plains: International Arts and Sciences Press, 1974.
    50. Laidler, David. "The current Inflation-The Problem of Explanation and the Problem of Policy (Lister Lecture)." After Keynes. papers presented to Section F (Economics) at the 1972 Annual Meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, edited by Joan Robinson (Oxford, 1973), pp.37-54.
    51. Lanyi, Anthony. "The Case for Floating Exchange Rates Reconsidered." Essays in International Finance No. 72, Princeton, N.J., 1969.
    52. Laursen, Svend., and L. A. Metzler. "Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment." Review of Economics and Statistics 32 (November 1950): 281-299.
    53. Maddala, G. S. Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. 1984.
    54. McKinnon, Ronald I. "Optimum Currency Areas." American Economic Review 53 (September 1963): 717-725.
    55. McTeer, Robert G. "Economic Independence and Insulation through Flexible Exchange Rates." in N. A. Beadles and L. A. Drewy. ed. Money, the Market and the State. Athens: University of Georgia Press, 1968, pp. 102-133.
    56. Meade, James E. "The Balance-of-Payments Problems of a European Free-Trade Area." Economic Journal 67 (September 1957): 379-396.
    57. Mintz, Norman N. "Toward a Common European Currency." Columbia Journal of World Business 6 (January/February 1971): 15-23.
    58. Mundell, Robert A. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 74 (May 1960): 227-257.
    59. _______. "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas." American Economic Review 51 (September 1961): 657-665.
    60. Mundell, Robert A., and Alexander K. Swoboda. ed . Monetary Problems of the International Economy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969.
    61. Orcutt, Guy H. "Exchange Rate Adjustment and Relative Size of the Depreciating Bloc." Review of Economics and Statistics 37 (February 1955): 1-11.
    62. Parkin, Michael. "An Overwhelming Case for European Monetary Union." The Banker 122 (September 1972): 1139-1142.
    63. Pindyck, Robert S., and Rubinfeld, Daniel L. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co, 1981.
    64. Scitovsky, Tibor. Economic Theory and Western European Integration. London, 1958.
    65. _______ . "The Theory of Balance-of-Payments Adjustment." Journal of Political Economy 75 (August 1967, Part II): 523-531.
    66. Snider, Delbert A. "Optimum Adjustment Processes and Currency Areas." Essays in International Finance No. 62, Princeton, N.J., 1967.
    67. Sohmen, Egon. Flexible Exchange Rates. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969.
    68. Theil, H. Principle of Econometrics. New York: Wiley, 1971.
    69. Tower, Edward., and Mark M. Courtney. "Exchange-Rate Flexibility and Macroeconomic Stability." Review of Economics and Statistics 56 (May 1974): 215-224.
    70. Tower, Edward., and Thomas D. Willett. "The Concept of Optimum Currency Areas and the Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates." in Halm. ed. (1970), pp. 407-415.
    71. _______. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and Exchange Rate Flexibility." Special Papers in International Economics No. 11, International Finance Section, Princeton University, 1976.
    72. Weil, Gorden. "Exchange-Rate Regime Selection in Theory and Practice." Monograph Series in Finance and Economics. New York: Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, 1983.
    73. Whitman, Marina von Neumann. "International and Interregional Payments Adjustment: A Synthetic View." Princeton Studies in International Finance No. 19, Princeton University Press, 1967.
    74.________. "Economic Openness and International Financial Flows." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1 (November 1969): 727-749
    75. Yeager, Leland B. "Exchange Rates within a Common Market ." Social Research 25 (Winter 1958): 415-438.
    Relation: 國立政治大學
    國際貿易研究所
    碩士
    73
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Theses

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    index.html0KbHTML2556View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback