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    政大機構典藏 > 政大學報 > 第71期 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/104715


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104715


    Title: 台灣地區出國觀光旅客需求預測模式之比較分析
    Other Titles: On Comparison of Forecasting Models for Outward Tourism Demand of Taiwan Area
    Authors: 鄭天澤;李旭煌
    Jeng, Tian-Tzer;Lee, Shiung-Hwang
    Contributors: 統計所
    Date: 1995-10
    Issue Date: 2016-12-09 10:25:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文針對台灣地區出國觀光旅客整體及各主要市場需求，分別建立預測模式。我們考慮下列六種預測方法：簡算法、單變量時間序列模式、轉移函數模式、時間趨勢模式、指數平滑法以及計量經濟模式，除利用各類模式選取準則如AIC、SBC等來選取最適模式外，並以平均絕對百分誤差(MAPE)、根均方百分誤差(RMSPE)、方向變化誤差(Direction of Change Error)以及趨勢變化誤差(Trend Change Error)來評估各方法預測能力，從中選出最佳模式並進行預測整合分析。
    Relation: 國立政治大學學報,71,179-210
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[第71期] 期刊論文

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