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    Title: 房價變動對經濟成長及消費支出之影響
    The influence of house prices on economic growth and consumption
    Authors: 林佑倫
    Lin, Yu Lun
    Contributors: 林左裕
    徐士勛

    Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
    Hsu, Shih Hsun

    林佑倫
    Lin, Yu Lun
    Keywords: 房價
    經濟成長
    消費支出
    費雪方程式
    向量自我回歸模型
    衝擊反應函數
    House prices
    Economic growth
    Consumption
    VAR
    Fisher equation
    IRF
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2017-05-01 11:26:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 臺灣不斷攀升的房價已使民眾的購屋貸款負擔能力惡化,尤其在次級房貸風暴後所實施的寬鬆貨幣政策,在低持有稅及交易稅的環境下,臺北市於2014年的房價所得比已高達16倍,高於世界多數城市。高房價所帶來的高貸款負擔率,似乎也已排擠了消費能力及經濟成長。有鑑於此,本文透過向量自我迴歸模型分析探討房價對消費支出的影響,研究結果顯示,臺灣消費支出受到加權股價指數及消費支出落後期顯著的正向影響;而不斷攀升的房價對消費支出則有負向影響。透過衝擊反應分析發現,房價指數對本身的衝擊反應最顯著,效果也最長,消費支出的衝擊反應次之。研究結果指出的高房價已明顯排擠消費支出,並導致經濟成長緩慢甚至衰退,透過此結論政府應深思期以不動產為所謂的「火車頭工業」刺激房價時對消費及經濟所產生的負向連鎖效應。
    The soaring housing price in Taiwan has deteriorated the home affordability of citizens in Taiwan, especially after the Quantitative Easing (QE) monetary policy after the subprime crisis as well as in the low tax environment. For example, the Price-to-Income (PTI) Ratio in Taipei City reached 16 in 2014 is higher than most cities in the world. The pressure of mortgage payment for households seems to crowd out the consumption capability and therefore the economic growth. To discover the influence of housing prices on consumption and economy, we employ the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) for empirical analysis. Results show that consumption in Taiwan is highly and positively influenced by the stock price index and the lagging consumer expense, whereas interest rate plays a minimal role. On the other hand, rising house prices have negative effects on consumption. Through the analysis of impulse response function, we discover that housing index has a significant impact on itself with long period effect, and secondly on the consumption. We also find that high housing price has a crowding-out effect on consumption and in turn results in the sluggish economic growth in Taiwan. The findings of this study provide the government with a policy direction in deciding whether to stimulate or control housing prices for long-term housing affordability and economic sustainability.
    Reference: Chinese Reference

    Lin, C. V., Wang C. A., Chang C.O., 1996 , “The Timing Relationship Analysis Between Real Estate Cycle and Business Cycle in Taiwan, ” The National Science Council Research (Humanities and Social Sciences), 7, 35-36.
    Yang, Y. N., 2011 , Time Series Analysis in Economics and Finance, Taipei: Yoh Yoh Book Gallery.

    English Reference

    Attanasio, O.P., Blow, L., Hamilton, R. and Leicester, A., 2009, “Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations”, Economica, 76, 20-50.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    1022570161
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022570161
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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