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Title:	南進！中國海上絲路及其與印度在南亞之戰略競賽
Authors:	丁樹範
Contributors:	國關中心
Keywords:	海上絲路;戰略競爭;批判論述分析;中國;印度;印度洋區域 Maritime Silk Road;Strategic competition;Critical Discourse Analysis
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-05-17 15:59:42 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	作為中國戰略願景的的一部分，由習近平領導的北京當局強調一個橫跨、涵蓋印度洋沿岸貿易中心的大海上絲路的重要性，這樣的戰略部署同時鑲嵌於其強勢的地緣政治、經濟背景之中。而這樣一個大海上絲路支配性結構的建立，也開始對印度構成挑戰，對於這個印度洋區域中最俱戰略地位的國家。大海上絲路的計畫，證實了長期處於地緣政治邊緣的南亞地區，正目擊一場可能改變區域戰略格局的競賽，如果冷戰時期的特色，是強權們對於南亞區域仁慈的忽視，當代的南亞區域的重要性則在亞洲、世界均逐漸加重。南亞區域下中國-印度日益強化的競爭關係，對於印度是一個重要的潛在消息，即是其可能在中國主導的地緣勢力中被邊緣化。中國『西進』策略的整併，幾乎與印度的『東向』策略衝突，且埋藏於雙方言辭的不確定性與模糊對雙邊均產生了嚴重的不安全感。南亞安全的意象長期受到印度與巴基斯坦間的二元對立所宰制，而從1998年次大陸的核子試驗後開始有所進化，印度在連接安全架構與區域共識上有了更多的彈性，同時此區域開啟了來自中國的更多的誘因，戰略與經濟意義上的。這個計畫認為，由於地緣關係的因素，一個戰略上的悖論持續存在於印度作為南亞區域的核心支柱與強權的狀況下；而中國在此時快速侵入此區域，而期望在此過程中尋求打破印度的平衡而尋找新的支點。本研究將深入探討阿富汗與斯理蘭卡兩個案，這兩個案中可發現印度的影響力明顯的在中國影響力擴張的情況下下滑。這個研究計畫的主要論點在於，藉由批判性論述分析的框架，定位中國-印度在大海上絲路這個支配性結構下的南亞競爭關係，並細緻化多重變數與決定性因素對此競爭關係的影響。 As part of its strategic vision, the leadership in Beijing led by Xi Jinping has emphasized the salience of a great maritime silk route straddling maritime entrepot regions comprising the Indian Ocean littoral. This strategic initiative has embedded within it strong features of geopolitics and geo-economics. The establishment of an overarching structure facilitating the great maritime silk route at the outset poses challenges to India – the most strategically placed country in the Indian Ocean Region. This project argues that for long a marginal sphere in geopolitics, South Asia is now witnessing the beginnings of a rivalry that are altering the strategic landscape of the region. If the cold war years were marked by a benign neglect of South Asia by the ‘superpowers’ the current century is increasingly highlighting the centrality of the region not only to Asia, but also the world beyond. The growing rivalry between China and India in the region has a powerful underlying message for India - it risks being marginalized within its own geographical sphere of dominance by China. China’s strategy of ‘Go West’ merges and almost clashes with India’s ‘Look East’ strategy and the uncertainties and ambiguities buried in the rhetoric on both sides generates ample insecurities. The image of South Asian security has for long been dominated by the dyadic rivalry between India and Pakistan. Events in the sub-continent since the nuclear tests of 1998 have evolved in such a manner that India finds more flexibility in articulating a security framework that resonates more beyond the region, while the region opens up to inducements – strategic and economic – from China. This project argues that a strategic paradox exists in South Asia with India remaining the central pillar and regional superpower – owing more to geography - while China is fast making inroads into the region, hoping to off-balance India in the process and emerge as the new fulcrum. Two examples to be studied in detail are Afghanistan and Sri Lanka where a visible deterioration of India’s influence has been more than compensated by China’s expanding clout. This project situates the arguments made by subscribing to a critical discourse analysis to locate the China-India rivalry in South Asia under the overarching frame of the Great Maritime Silk Road initiative to detail the multiple variables and determinants shaping this rivalry.
Relation:	MOST 104-2410-H-004-100
Data Type:	report
Appears in Collections:	[The Institute of International Relations ] National Sci-Tech Programs

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