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    题名: 從日本經驗看高房價對經濟成長、國民消費及少子化之影響
    作者: 林左裕
    贡献者: 地政學系
    关键词: 日本;平成蕭條;通貨緊縮;房價;家戶消費支出;生育率
    Japan;Heisei recession;deflation;housing price;household expenditure;fertility rate
    日期: 2015
    上传时间: 2017-12-26 17:43:52 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 近年來，各已開發國家持續出現經濟成長減緩、薪資成長停滯與消費需求持續低迷之情形，屢有是否會陷入通貨緊縮之探討。日本自1990年代泡沫破裂以來，陷入「失落的十年」，在此二十多年間，房價暴跌、國民消費持續低迷與低生育之情形，相當值得作為已開發國家之借鏡。過去已有相當文獻針對低生育與低消費之成因與對策進行分析，本文以新家庭經濟學理論為核心，將其綜合進行討論，探究生育、購屋與消費支出之相互關聯。本文以時間序列進行分析，探究日本1996年至2013年房價變動、消費支出與生育率之相互關係。實證結果發現生育行為與消費支出存在負向關聯，顯示家戶在預算有限之情形下，二者產生排擠效果。而生育行為與購屋行為則呈現同向變動關係，推測係自泡沫破裂以來，房價之變動回歸家戶之基本需求。此外，本文發現房價變動與消費支出亦存在相互排擠效果，過去文獻所認為之財富效果並未有其驗證，此結果可能受到各國相關抵押貸款制度、房價可負擔性之影響。此研究結論提供另一觀點探討低生育與低消費之成因，期望可對政策制定提供方向，更作為各已開發國家之前車之鑑。
    In the last two decades, Japan has fallen in the economic recession after the burst of real estate bubble. Many studies focused on the causes of “Japan’s lost decades”. Some suggest that household consumption is the primary cause of the prolonged slowdown of economy in Japan. Becker (1960) proposed the “New Family Economy Theory” which treated children as normal goods and suggested that decision making of giving birth depended on the parents’ opportunity cost. On the other hand, real estate is an important asset for households’ wealth. Many studies found that fluctuation of housing prices would change the decision making of the household, especially the consumption and giving birth. The aim of this study is explore the impact of changes in housing prices on households’ consumption and fertility rate. This paper assumes that the crowding-out effect existed between the housing prices, households’ expenditure and the fertility rate. This study intends to analyze how the housing prices impact household consumer spending and fertility rate through the time series analysis in Japan from 1996 to 2013. Results of this study indicate that there is a negative effect of housing prices on household consumer spending. This study highlights the important relationship between the fluctuation of housing prices and the decision making of household, providing governments precious references on economic and demographic policies.
    關聯: 執行起迄：2015/08/01~2016/07/31
    104-2410-H-004-197
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[資訊科學系] 國科會研究計畫

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